999
FXUS65 KPIH 100330
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
930 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN.
- GUSTY WEST WINDS CRANK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPAND INTO
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
- COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS LIKELY NEEDED FOR THE
VALLEY GROWING ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- DRYING AND WARMING TREND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
00Z NBM GUIDANCE HAS ARRIVED AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 18Z
GUIDANCE. MANY OF THE AGRICULTURAL AREA ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
WILL BE LIKELY SITTING BELOW 35 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS STANDING
A 50% CHANCE OR HIGHER OF FALLING TO 32 DEGREES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO MOVE FORWARD WITH A FREEZE WATCH WITH THE
ANTICIPATION THAT IT WILL BE UPGRADED TOMORROW TO EITHER A FROST
ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WHILE THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE SHIFTED EAST
OF THE AREA, COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE TROUGH AXIS COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING HAVE YIELDED ADEQUATE INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
DATA AND HREF PROGS INDICATE AREAS OF SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 30 KTS, SUPPORTIVE OF A
FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COOLER NIGHT, ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE ANY WIDESPREAD
FROST CONCERNS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION GROWING ZONES.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY STAY ON THE COOL SIDE AS A
REINFORCING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS MT/ID
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BROADER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, REACHING THE 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND
40S/50S MOUNTAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE ISLAND PARK AREA AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ALIGN. WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CRANK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH, IN THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR OUR LOWER ELEVATION GROWING ZONES WHERE LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP SOLIDLY INTO THE 30S. THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR
FROM BURLEY TO POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS REMAINS SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FORECAST. PROBABILITIES OF TEMPS LOWER
THAN 36F ARE AROUND 35 PERCENT AT BURLEY, 45% AND POCATELLO, AND
65% AT IDAHO FALLS PER LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY, LOW TO MID 30S LOOK TO BE THE
RULE, WITH PROBABILITIES OF TEMPS LESS THAN 36F EXCEEDING 70
PERCENT OVER MOST OF THIS AREA. LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES OF LESS
THAN 32F, THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE LOWER ELEVATION GROWING
ZONES EXTEND FROM THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN TO WEST OF BLACKFOOT AND
THE ARCO DESERT, WHERE PROBABILITIES REACH AS HIGH AS 50-75
PERCENT. THOSE WITH GARDENS OR OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL
WANT TO TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WARMING TREND STARTS THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OFF THE WEST
COAST, LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS LOCALLY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY,
BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY GLANCE THE AREA IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH COULD BRING SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE DIVIDE AND ISLAND PARK AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIP CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA, BUT
SEEING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS WITH THE DEPTH
AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SO STAY TUNED. AFTERNOON
BREEZES PICK BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH COMBINED WITH
WARMING AND DRYING, WILL BRING SOME RENEWED AT LEAST LOW-END
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PARTS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY, AND SOUTH HILLS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE WINDS RELAX.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS RAMPING BACK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AROUND IDA
AND DIJ FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM
MONTANA. EXPECT DOWNVALLEY WINDS AT SUN TONIGHT TO SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY CROSSWIND TOMORROW MORNING AND BE RATHER GUSTY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TODAY EXPECT STRONG WINDS GUSTS (35 TO 50 MPH) WITH INCREASED
RHS (MIN RHS OF 25 TO 60%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 411 WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
50S AND 60S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO THE
70S AND 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MIN RHS WILL DROP BACK BELOW 25%
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS AND BELOW 15% FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS (FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 410, 425, 427, AND PORTIONS OF 413).
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ051>058-
062.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR IDZ051>054.
UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...KB
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...TW
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