231
FXUS65 KPIH 101127
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
527 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CRANK UP AGAIN ON TODAY AND
EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
- COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS LIKELY NEEDED FOR THE
VALLEY GROWING ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- DRYING AND WARMING TREND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
TEMPERATURES TODAY STAY ON THE COOL SIDE AS A REINFORCING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS MT/ID ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE BROADER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE, REACHING THE 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S/50S
MOUNTAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE
ISLAND PARK AREA AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALIGN. WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CRANK UP AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY, GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH, IN THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN, ARCO DESERT, SHOSHONE REGION, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY,
SOUTHERN HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS, RAFT RIVER REGION, AND THE
MARSH/ALBION HIGHLANDS.
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. FREEZE
WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR OUR LOWER ELEVATION GROWING ZONES
WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOLIDLY INTO THE 30S. THE
INTERSTATE CORRIDOR FROM BURLEY TO POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS
REMAINS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FORECAST.
PROBABILITIES OF TEMPS LOWER THAN 36F ARE AROUND 35 PERCENT AT
BURLEY, 45% AND POCATELLO, AND 65% AT IDAHO FALLS PER LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY,
LOW TO MID 30S LOOK TO BE THE RULE, WITH PROBABILITIES OF TEMPS
LESS THAN 36F EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THIS AREA.
LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 32F, THE HIGHEST VALUES IN
THE LOWER ELEVATION GROWING ZONES EXTEND FROM THE UPPER SNAKE
PLAIN TO WEST OF BLACKFOOT AND THE ARCO DESERT, WHERE
PROBABILITIES REACH AS HIGH AS 50-75 PERCENT. THOSE WITH GARDENS
OR OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL WANT TO TAKE PROTECTIVE
MEASURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WARMING TREND STARTS THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OFF THE WEST
COAST, LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS LOCALLY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY,
BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY GLANCE THE AREA IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH COULD BRING SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE DIVIDE AND ISLAND PARK AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIP CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA, BUT
SEEING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS WITH THE DEPTH
AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SO STAY TUNED. AFTERNOON
BREEZES PICK BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH COMBINED WITH
WARMING AND DRYING, WILL BRING SOME RENEWED AT LEAST LOW-END
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PARTS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY, AND SOUTH HILLS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY.
HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR
ALL TAF SITES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR IDA AND DIJ FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THAT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES FOR IDA IS LESS THAN 15%.
THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TSTMS AT DIJ. SO, HAVE
ADDED PROB30 FOR TSTMS FOR DIJ. EXPECT DOWNVALLEY WINDS AT SUN
THIS MORNING TO SWITCH TO A WESTERLY CROSSWIND TOMORROW MORNING
AND BE RATHER GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS DROP OFF
QUICKLY EARLY TOMORROW EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. CLOUDS IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AS WELL TOMORROW EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TODAY EXPECT STRONG WINDS GUSTS (35 TO 50 MPH) WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASED RHS (MIN RHS OF 20 TO 50%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 475, 476 AND 411
WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY AS WELL
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S TODAY.
LOOK FOR DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO THE
70S AND 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MIN RHS WILL DROP BACK BELOW 25%
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS AND BELOW 15% FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS (FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 410, 425, 427, AND PORTIONS OF 413). FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
HIGHER TEMPERATURES, AND CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FUELS WILL
BRING SOME RENEWED AT LEAST LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
PARTS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 425 AND 427.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ051>058-062.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
IDZ051>054.
DISCUSSION...TW
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...TW
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