057
FXUS65 KPIH 101838
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1238 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.
- COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE
WARNING HEADLINES FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
- DRYING AND WARMING TREND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA
TODAY, WE GET CLIPPED BY TROUGHING ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT. THIS IS
BRINGING OUR GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. WE ARE ALSO ALREADY SEEING A FEW OF THOSE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP ON RADAR AROUND THE ISLAND PARK AREA.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED PORTION
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ONCE THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT TONIGHT, THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP. MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO
START THURSDAY MORNING, SO A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ALONG WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE BURLEY ZONE.
IT'S A NEARLY 100% GUARANTEE THAT ALL OF THESE HIGHLIGHTED ZONES
WILL MEET AT LEAST FROST ADVISORY ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE
"WARMEST" TEMPERATURES BEING IN BURLEY AND POCATELLO AT 37 DEGREES,
BUT IT'S FARTHER OUT IN THE PLAIN THAT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FOUND. THERE'S A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT FORT HALL AND
BLACKFOOT WILL FALL TO 32 DEGREES OR COLDER WITH THAT BEING CLOSER
TO A 70 PERCENT CHANCE AROUND ATOMIC CITY.
AFTER TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRIER FOR EVERYONE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER ON THURSDAY BEFORE BREEZY CONDITIONS
RETURN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH. ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEMPER OUR HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLAND PARK/EASTERN HIGHLANDS AREAS ON
SUNDAY WITH ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THOSE TWO
AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE WIND, WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS RANGING 30 TO 45 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE RETAINED THE
PROB30 AT KDIJ FOR A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
BEING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE, INCREASING PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL MEAN DECREASING CLOUDS AND WIND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 12:37 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
WINDS GUSTS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (35 TO
50 MPH) WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASED RHS (MIN RHS OF 20 TO 40%) WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
475, 476, 411, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 410 WITH A PASSING SHORT
WAVE.
LOOK FOR DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO THE 70S
AND 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MIN RHS WILL DROP BACK BELOW 25% FOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND BELOW 15% FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS (FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 425, 427,
AND PORTIONS OF 413). FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, HIGHER TEMPERATURES, AND NEAR CRITICAL
FUELS WILL BRING SOME RENEWED AT LEAST LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO PARTS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 425 AND 427.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ051>058-062.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR IDZ051>054.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR IDZ055.
DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...CROPP
FIRE WEATHER...AMM/TW
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