435
FXUS65 KPIH 111915
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
115 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY DUE TO LOW RHS AND BREEZY WINDS.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
WE BEGIN OUR WARMING TREND TODAY AS YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND WE GET INTO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS ARE QUITE A BIT LIGHTER TODAY, TOO, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS ONLY
TO ABOUT 20 OR 25 MPH OUT ACROSS THE DESERT. IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OUT THERE WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
NEAR THE MID 30S, BUT IT'S ONLY ABOUT A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TO DROP TO AT LEAST 36 DEGREES
OR COLDER, SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. WHILE IT
WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A COUPLE OF 36S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
MANY WILL STAY WARMER THAN THAT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE BACK TODAY, TOO, AND IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE HAVE
ANY REAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON THE HORIZON FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
DAYS. WE MAY SEE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TRY TO GET
GOING OFF OF THE TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ABOUT A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA FOR THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING A LITTLE BIT OF TROUGHING INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN IDAHO, TOO. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP
TOO MUCH AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIN RHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AND SOUTH HILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY, DRY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER EAST IDAHO THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FRIDAY, GENERALLY 10-15KTS SUSTAINED FOR
MOST SITES, WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY CROSS WINDS FOR
SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
LOOK FOR DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO THE 70S
AND 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MIN RHS WILL DROP BACK BELOW 25% FOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND BELOW 15% FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS (FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 425, 427,
AND PORTIONS OF 413). FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, HIGHER TEMPERATURES, AND NEAR CRITICAL
FUELS WILL BRING SOME RENEWED AT LEAST LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO PARTS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 425 AND 427. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIEST AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 425 CURRENTLY HAS BOTH CRITICAL WINDS
AND CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR NOW SINCE FUELS ARE "APPROACHING CRITICAL," BUT THERE
MAY BE UPDATES OR CHANGES IF WE HEAR ANY NEW INFORMATION FROM FIRE
PARTNERS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...AMM/TW
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