776
FXUS65 KPIH 131112
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
512 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSISTENT NORTH WIND WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE
AMERICAN FALL RESERVOIR NEARLY ALL DAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT.
- WARMING AND DRYING START SUNDAY, CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- AIR FLOW SHIFTS MONDAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY, WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TROUGH IN WY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP AIR FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY, BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MON. THE NEXT
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH CENTRAL MT, SHIFTING THE AIR FLOW TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, ALLOWING SOME STRONGER WARMING BY MON,
EVEN STRONGER TUE. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR WED AND THU, THEN A RETURN TO WARMING FOR FRI.
THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF,
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. COVERAGE IS ALSO NOT EXTENSIVE, AND
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
FREMONT COUNTY, THE FORECAST IS DRY TODAY AND EVERYWHERE ELSE
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST. ONE BENEFIT OF
THE DRY CONDITIONS IS THAT THERE IS NO RISK OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
THE WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHEASTERLY ALL DAY TODAY; THERE IS A LOWER THRESHOLD FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION IS NORTHEAST, OF 8KT.
THE NORTHEAST WIND IS EVEN STRONGER SUN. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NECESSARY BOTH DAYS FOR THE RESERVOIR. THE SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND OCCURS DURING THE DAY MON, WHEN WIND WILL
BE LIGHTEST AND FOLLOW SLOPE-VALLEY BEHAVIOR. THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH MT WILL INCREASE WIND TO ADVISORY-LEVEL ON TUE AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON WED. THU AND FRI WILL SEE DECREASED WIND AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
NAM GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL VFR CLOUDINESS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO THE TROUGH IN CENTRAL MT, BUT ONLY
KSUN WILL HAVE A RISK OF DEVELOPING A CIG, AND THAT AT AROUND
7000FT AGL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM ANY OF THIS, THIS FAR
FROM THE LOW CENTER. LIKEWISE, THERE IS NO IMPACT ON VSBY.
ONCE AGAIN, WIND DRIVES THE FMDDHHMM GROUPS. FOR THE THREE SNAKE
RIVE PLAIN AIRDROMES, KIDA, KPIH, AND KBYI, THERE APPEARS TO BE
A BRIEF ACCELERATION OF THE WIND TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THEN AS THE INSOLATION ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT
THE WIND TO UPSLOPE, THE END RESULT IS ONLY A WEAKENED NORTHEAST
TO EAST FLOW. BY AFTERNOON, ONLY KBYI IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS
NORTHEAST FLOW, SHIFTING TO A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, KSUN IS SEEING ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE MID-MORNING, THEN SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW BEFORE A
RETURN TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT. KDIJ STAYS MOSTLY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AFTER SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
IN THE POST-TROUGH ENVIRONMENT, COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY, AND THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE REGION WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH, THIS ONE TRACKING SIMILARLY THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MT, WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH MOISTURE THIS FAR
FROM ITS CENTER, BUT WILL KICK UP WIND STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A
MAJOR CONCERN BY TUE. IF THERE IS LITTLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
OR DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE, THEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS IT LOOKS NOW, A LARGE AREA OF LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS AND THE
SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH NF AND PORTIONS OF THE CARIBOU NF WILL FALL
INTO THIS CATEGORY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY 6 AM MDT TO 6 PM MDT FOR AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR IDZ054.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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