303
FXUS65 KPIH 141040
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
440 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN MEANS
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR.
- WARMING AND DRYING STARTS TODAY, WITH HUMIDITY REACHING
CRITICALLY DRY THRESHOLDS AT MOST LOW ELEVATIONS BY TUESDAY.
- WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY CAUSING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE "STORM" TRACK, IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT, IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA CONTINUES TO DROP LOWS FROM NORTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD
BUT STAYING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DESPITE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS IN MT, THE SURFACE FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHILE
UPPER LEVELS ARE NORTHWEST. THE WIND ONCE AGAIN SHOULD REACH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NORTHEAST WIND SITUATION AT
THE AMERICAN FALL RESERVOIR. ON MONDAY, AN APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW IN CANADA DROPS INTO MT EAST OF THE DIVIDE, AND BREAKS UP
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. BY
AFTERNOON, WIND SHOULD BE THE MORE USUAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND,
WHILE IT REMAINS LIGHT. BY TUE AFTERNOON THE NEXT LOW IS
STRONGER AND WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME AREAS TO
HAVE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WITH AFTERNOON MIXING, IT IS LIKELY
THAT THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY WIND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND NOT LET
UP UNTIL FRI.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB MOVING THROUGH
OCCASIONALLY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TODAY IT IS HERE IN
MOSTLY THE MORNING, THEN MON THE SAME, THEN AGAIN ON MON
EVENING. THE FARTHER NORTH, THE MORE IT MAY REACH PARTLY SUNNY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. IN NO WAY WILL IT GENERATE ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST AREA; THIS IS TRUE THROUGH SAT.
TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY, BUT ONCE THE NORTHERLY
FLOW SHUTS DOWN, TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE UPWARD FOR TUE AND STAY
VERY WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THANKFULLY, THIS MEANS THE AIR CANNOT COOL DOWN TO
PROVOKE ANY TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCT. NOTHING RECORD
SETTING AS EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS THE PEAK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SOME CLOUDINESS HAS INFILTRATED FROM THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND SO THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS, BUT
INSTABILITY IS LOW AND THUS NO TS/SHRA EXPECTED FROM ANY OF
THIS. MOST AFFECTED ARE THE NORTHERN AIRDROMES: KSUN, KDIJ, AND
KIDA. LOW BUT STILL VFR CIGS AT KDIJ AND KIDA, BUT CONDITIONS GO
SKC-SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VSBY IS UNAFFECTED.
SO IT IS AGAIN A CHALLENGING WIND SHIFT DAY. KSUN APPEARS MOSTLY
NORMAL WITH MORNING DOWNSLOPE, SHIFTING TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR THE AFTERNOON, STAYING AT 10KT OR BELOW. KDIJ IS VRB
FOR WIND SAVE FOR THE AFTERNOON WHEN NORTHWEST WIND SETS UP FOR
MID-AFTERNOON TO MID-EVENING. KBYI IS MOSTLY EAST WITH SOME
STRONG WIND FIRST THING AFTER SUNRISE, BUT SETTLING DOWN AND
FINALLY SHIFTING DURING THE EVENING TO THE DOWNSLOPE SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR KIDA AND KPIH, IT WILL BE ALL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND TODAY, PEAKING IN THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS SETTING UP AND WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY INTO THE CRITICAL VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AS
EARLY AS TODAY IN WESTERN PORTIONS AND BY TUESDAY EVERYWHERE AT
THE LOW ELEVATIONS, SAVE FOR THE TARGHEE PORTION OF THE
CARIBOU-TARGHEE NF. AN INCOMING LOW WILL KICK UP WIND AS EARLY
AS TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE STRONG WIND WED AND THU.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE HERE AS FUEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DROP. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THOSE REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS, THEN THERE MAY BE RED FLAG WARNINGS NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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