763
FXUS65 KPIH 011122
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
522 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES, BUT STRENGTH OF THE
WARMING DIMINISHES.
- INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS DRY, NO THUNDERSTORMS,
LIGHT WIND. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY
CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED
INSTABILITY TODAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEARLY EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE BEAR LAKE REGION. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING ENE IN
DIRECTION AND SO WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THAN THE SOUTHERN. FOR TONIGHT AND
THU THE GREATER PRECIPITATION MOVES WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS FRI, THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STAYS IN THE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND THE SLOW-
MOVING NATURE OF THIS LOW WILL MEAN A VERY GRADUAL WARMING
TREND, ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 DEG F FROM DAY TO DAY. WIND IS
LIGHT TODAY, THEN BREEZIER TOMORROW AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES TO
THE EAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRI AFTERNOON AS WELL.
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH TUE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL START AMPLIFYING BY SUN. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE CLUSTERS IS HOW STRONG THIS RIDGE IS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRONG WARMING BY MON OR TUE, SO EXPECT
ANOTHER SURGE IN TEMPERATURES, WHERE LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS
WILL START EXCEEDING 90 DEG F. THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP SKIES NEARLY CLEAR, WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING THE ONLY WAY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP. AS USUAL
UNDER SUCH A RIDGE, WIND WILL STAY RELATIVELY CALM AT NIGHT WITH
SLOPE- VALLEY WIND FOR THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
SOME OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL OR HIGHER CIGS, ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING, BUT ALSO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABLIZES IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHENEVER TSRA POP UP. TSRA SEEM TO DEVELOP BY 01/19Z.
THEY BARELY QUALIFY FOR A PROB30 GROUP. TSRA CONTINUE INTO THE
MID-EVENING. EXPECT G30KT AS THERE ISN'T MUCH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SO LIGHT THAT NO
VSBY IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
OUTSIDE OF TSRA, WIND STAYS FAIRLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY DRIVEN BY
SLOPE-VALLEY EFFECT. ONLY G25KT APPEARS TO BE AT KIDA, THE REST
STAYING AT 15KT SUSTAINED OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
WARMING AND DRYING CONTINUES TODAY. THE AIR REMAINS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT THE MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD BE WAY DOWN AND HUMIDITY FOR THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD START LOWERING. WIND WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND
THU, BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS, THE WIND SHOULD BE
STRONGER FRI. LIGHT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU AND FRI. BY SAT AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BE BUILDING, AND BY SUN
OR MON TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL START SURPASSING
THE 90 DEG F MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. BY MON, A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACING FROM THE WEST.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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