318
FXUS65 KPIH 012254
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
454 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
- NO STORMS EXPECTED ON THE FOURTH, BUT MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OF THE WESTERN U.S., WITH MULTIPLE
RIPPLES WORKING ACROSS IDAHO. THESE LITTLE "WAVES" WILL INTERACT
WITH WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE OVERALL TREND THOUGH IS FOR THE
AIRMASS TO DRY OUT. IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE THAT HAS FALLEN SINCE
THE WEEKEND. WHERE THE AIR IS "DRIER" THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEEING STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 50-90% CHANCE OF
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH, WITH HIGHER END GUSTS APPROACHING 55-60 MPH.
AGAIN, IF WE DON'T MIX OUT SOME OF THE MORE HUMID AIR
AROUND...THOSE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT
PATTERN. ON THE FLIP SIDE, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TOMORROW, THERE
IS A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT TODAY, MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER, AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE SOUTH HILLS/ALBION
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FOR FRIDAY, ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE
ACROSS BENCH AREAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN IS A BIT HIGHER. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH MORE LOW TO MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND, THE TREND CONTINUES TO REMAIN
STORM-FREE ON THE FOURTH FOR NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUDS
AND SOME GUSTS IN SPOTS AROUND 25 MPH. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING
DRY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/VIRGA POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS JUMP OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE MID 80S
THROUGH MID 90S. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK TRIES TO ESTABLISH SOME
TYPE OF SOUTHWEST/MONSOON PATTERN AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH
REBUILDS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S WITH SOME 90S IN THE FORECAST. THE QUESTION WOULD BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WORKS NORTH ACROSS IDAHO. THE BLEND OF MODELS HAS
SOME DAILY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA CURRENTLY. HAVE KEPT PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT SUN UNTIL 02Z. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS UP
TO AROUND 30 KTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS DROP OFF
THIS EVENING WITH OVERALL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WITH HEATING
TOMORROW EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES AND PROB30 THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SUN. EXPECT OUTFLOWS OF AROUND 25KTS
TOMORROW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG OR AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. CONVECTION LOOKS TO END
SOONER TOMORROW. FOR MOST SITES CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON, AROUND 23Z TO 00Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE MOISTURE
CONTENT SHOULD BE WAY DOWN AND HUMIDITY FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
START LOWERING. WIND WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND THU, BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS, THE WIND SHOULD BE STRONGER FRI.
LIGHT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THU AND FRI. BY SAT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BE BUILDING, AND BY SUN OR MON
TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL START SURPASSING THE 90
DEG F MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. BY MON, A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...GK
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