000
FXUS65 KPIH 021113
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
513 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH NEVADA AND
UTAH.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. NO RAIN AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY EVENING, BUT WARMING
CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING A THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER THREAT TO ALL BUT THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE THREAT SPREADS NORTHWARD
AGAIN, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS EVEN LESS THAN THU. BY LATE THU
NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL IDAHO. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS CUT OFF, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO SURGE UP 3 TO 7 DEG F, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER EXCEEDING THE 90 DEG F
THRESHOLD BY INDEPENDENCE DAY. SUN IS EVEN WARMER, EVEN THOUGH A
THREAT OF CONVECTION RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER, TRIGGERED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH VERY
UNSTABLE BUT RATHER DRY AIR. THE UPPER WIND IS STRONGEST ON FRI,
AND THIS SHOULD MEAN SOME GUSTY WIND ON FRI, JUST BEFORE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
SUN THROUGH WED...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT AND RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MON. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO REMNANTS OF
THE MONSOON BEING ADVECTED NORTH AND TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE OFFSET BY WARMER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND MAYBE EVEN COOL ON
TUE. THE PATTERN STAYS SIMILAR ON WED; MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD COOL TEMPERATURES SOME. ONE THING
THAT SHOULD HOLD IS THAT WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, DEPENDING ON THE AFTERNOON MIXING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE TREND FOR TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING,
ESPECIALLY FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AIRDROMES.
IT IS SO LOW, IT WAS DIFFICUTLT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
TSRA/SHRA IN ANY OF THE TAFS, EVEN KSUN AND KDIJ. WIND GETS
GUSTY AT KIDA, KPIH, AND KSUN FOR THE AFTERNOON, KDIJ IN THE
EVENING. STILL, G20KT SHOULD BE THE LIMIT.
SOME CIGS THIS MORNING AT KDIJ IN THE MID-LEVELS, BUT SHOULD
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. ZERO IMPACT TO VSBY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL STILL FEATURE VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON AREAS FROM THE SNAKE
RIVER SOUTHWARD. ON FRI, IT COULD BE MORE SPREAD OUT THANKS TO A
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH CANADA THAT HAS ENOUGH INFLUENCE THIS FAR
SOUTH TO TRIGGER SOMETHING. THE MAIN PROBLEM AREA WILL LIKELY BE
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FIRE WEATHER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRYING HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY GOING BELOW
15 PERCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO ARES OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY FOR TODAY AND FRI. THE SURGING TEMPERATURES
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL SPREAD THE DRYNESS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF FROM THU TO FRI AFTER WARMING FROM
YESTEDAY TO TODAY, BUT STRONGER WARMING RETURNS FOR SAT WITH
PEAK TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE MON.
NOT MUCH RISK OF WIND GUSTING TO 25 MPH UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON WHEN
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND GETS A CHANCE TO INCREASE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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