097
FXUS65 KPIH 021836
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1236 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WITH A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF RAIN EXPECTED
- DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING BACK UP ON SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
WE ARE STILL SEEING THESE SMALL RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN HELPING
KICK OF POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TODAY, IT
STILL APPEARS THE SOUTH HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS, EASTERN, AND
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS ARE THE TARGET. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM MACKAY THROUGH GILMORE SUMMIT AND LONE PINE. THERE
IS 30-50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT, BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM
ALL OF THE RECENT MOISTURE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT EMERGE FROM HIGHER TERRAIN. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
WE ARE EXPECTING SOME GUSTS OUT ACROSS THE LAVA BEDS, CRATERS,
AND THE INL AROUND 25-30 MPH. EVEN IF WE SEE A BIT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TONIGHT, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE AND LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AND LIKELY JUST SOME VIRGA. FOR FRIDAY, IT
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S POTENTIAL PATTERN FOR ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB, WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S TOMORROW.
FOR THE FOURTH, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT NO STORMS DEVELOPING,
BUT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A BIT OF VIRGA. AT THE MOMENT, ANY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT IS ALMOST ZERO AT THE
MOMENT. OVERALL WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE 15-25 MPH, MOSTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND STRONGEST ACROSS RIDGELINES AND
ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND (AND WELL TIMED), WE ARE BACK INTO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STARTING SUNDAY. AS
HIGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS, THAT ALLOWS
FOR A MONSOON-TYPE PATTERN TO EMERGE AND SEE SOME MOISTURE NORTH
INTO IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP, MORE 90S IN
THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS. THAT MEANS IF
AND WHERE WE SEE THUNDERSTORMS, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
DRY, OR AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS. THIS ALSO MEANS
MOST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS TERRAIN, WITH MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY, MINUS ANY TYPE
OF OUTFLOW-INDUCED STORMS. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS
DECENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE CLUSTER FORECASTS FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN TO OUR SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
WEST DOES IT BUILD AND CUT OFF ANY MOISTURE. MOST INDICATIONS
THAT WE END UP IN WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD
BE WARMER AND DRY WITH MAYBE STILL LIMITED MOISTURE IMPACTING
US. MORE WESTERLY WOULD BE A BIT COOLER (RELATIVE TO THE OTHER
SCENARIO) BUT DEFINITELY DRY. BOTH PATTERNS WOULD BE BREEZY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. MAIN FORECAST WILL BE ANY
THUNDERSTORM IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW ONLY PUT A PROB30
GROUP AT DIJ WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AT BYI. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE BUT THINK COVERAGE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. HAVE SOME 20 KNOT WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AT IDA
AND PIH AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL STILL FEATURE VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON AREAS FROM THE SNAKE
RIVER SOUTHWARD. ON FRI, IT COULD BE MORE SPREAD OUT THANKS TO A
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH CANADA THAT HAS ENOUGH INFLUENCE THIS FAR
SOUTH TO TRIGGER SOMETHING. THE MAIN PROBLEM AREA WILL LIKELY BE
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FIRE WEATHER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRYING HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY GOING BELOW
15 PERCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO ARES OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY FOR TODAY AND FRI. THE SURGING TEMPERATURES
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL SPREAD THE DRYNESS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF FROM THU TO FRI AFTER WARMING FROM
YESTERDAY TO TODAY, BUT STRONGER WARMING RETURNS FOR SAT WITH
PEAK TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE MON.
NOT MUCH RISK OF WIND GUSTING TO 25 MPH UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON WHEN
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND GETS A CHANCE TO INCREASE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...GK
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