033
FXUS65 KPIH 031732
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1132 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- TRANQUIL INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER, GETTING HOT FOR SOME WITH
VERY DRY HUMIDITY. LIGHT WIND.
- THUNDERSTORM RISK RETURNS FOR SOME ON SUNDAY, MORE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VERY SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL COMBINE WITH A GREAT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ONCE THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE THAT THERE IS A RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CUSTER, LEMHI, AND CLARK
COUNTIES IN THE NORTH, AND THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE SMALL AND THE THREAT IS VERY LOW IN TERMS OF PERCENT
COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE. THE SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR FOR THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY HOLIDAY AND SAT NIGHT. BY SUN AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY AND A
TROUGH WILL TRIGGER A RETURN RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS;
AGAIN, NOT VERY HIGH FOR EITHER, BUT NO LONGER ZERO, LIKE IT HAD
BEEN LOOKING FOR SUN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RIDGE BUILDING PUSHES TEMPERATURES UP
TO THE POINT WHERE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL CROSS THE 90 DEGREE F THRESHOLD ON THE
HOLIDAY, THEN UP ANOTHER 2 DEG F FOR SUN AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS, WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
UNTIL PERHAPS SUN AFTERNOON WHEN A MORE MODERATE WIND DEVELOPS.
MON THROUGH THU...THE CLUSTERS ALL HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS.
FOR MON AND TUE, THE WEAK GRADIENT ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AIRFLOW THAT IS SET UP COULD LEAD TO AN INTRUSION OF THE
REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON, AND THUS TRIGGER SOME SORT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE COMES
THIS FAR NORTH. BY WED, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE
WESTERLY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING OUT, ALTHOUGH NOT ALL
CLUSTERS ARE SHIFTING THAT MUCH MORE WESTERLY. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A STRONG HEAT UP AS NONE OF THE CLUSTERS INDICATE ANY SORT OF
SHORTWAVE BREAKING OFF A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO DRY COLD FRONT APPEARS TO
DRIVE THROUGH; THE BAD NEWS IS THAT UNLESS THE MOISTURE COMES UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON, IT WILL BE A VERY DRY PERIOD,
ADDING TO THE FIRE DANGER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BUT
LESS THAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THIS AFTERNOON. DID PUT A
PROB30 GROUP IN DIJ AFTER 21Z BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
AT THE SITE. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND NO THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN SAWTOOTH NF AND THE BLM
LANDS APPEARING TO AVOID THE RISK. THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
ITSELF HAS NO RISK OF THUNDER OR SHOWERS, WITH TEMPERATURES UP
AROUND 4 DEG AND MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS CROSSING THE 90 DEGREE
THRESHOLD FOR HIGHS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THOSE SAME
ELEVATIONS CRASHING BELOW 15 PERCENT, SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SALMON-CHALLIS NF AND THE TARGHEE NF. THIS DRYNESS CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY.
COMBINE THIS DRYNESS WITH EXTREMELY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS
(INSTABILITY) IN THE AFTERNOON, AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
HIGH INTENSITY FIRES. THE SAVING GRACE IS THE LIGHT WIND
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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