187
FXUS65 KPIH 031928
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
128 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZY
CONDITIONS
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN STARTING SUNDAY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BOOKEND THE FOURTH OF JULY,
WITH THE FOURTH ITSELF REMAINING DRY AND STORM-FREE.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MACKAY TO ISLAND PARK AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WE ARE LOOKING
AT A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN,
WHICH MAY END UP BEING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH WE
DID SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF IDAHO FALLS
YESTERDAY WITHOUT OUTFLOW PRESENT. TODAY'S ROUND SHOULD BE
WRAPPED UP BY MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER
35 MPH WITH SOME STORMS, POTENTIALLY PUSHING TOWARD 45 MPH.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT STILL A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. GUSTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS SHOULD STAY
UNDER 25 MPH.TOMORROW, WE DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPING, BUT THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND OR
THUNDERSTORM SIGNAL IN THE MODELS SHOWS THAT WE MAY JUST SEE
SOME VIRGA. THE OVERALL WIND POTENTIAL TOMORROW IS SIMILAR TO
TODAY, WITH GUSTS NOT GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY, A BIT STRONGER SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
TARGET THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOMETHING DEVELOP
EAST OF I-15, BUT THE CURRENT CHANCE IS UNDER 15%. WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EXPECT
MOSTLY VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS. WHERE CONTINUE TO SEE A LOT OF
SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERING, THERE IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND RACE THROUGH THE MID 70S AND 80S AND INTO
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S BY SUNDAY.
WE DO SET UP THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A MONSOON-TYPE
PATTERN, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLING SOME MOISTURE UP INTO
IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A LOT OF 80S AND LOW
90S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN LOW. UNLESS WE GET A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN WITH ANY PARTICULAR BATCH OF STORMS COMING THROUGH, WE MAY
END WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME DEBATE ON
WHAT PATTERN SETS UP OVER IDAHO. THERE IS STILL PRETTY MUCH AN
EVEN SPLIT THE CLUSTER FORECASTS, ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES, AND
THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THE CLUSTER WANT TO DEVELOP A RATHER
STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER US OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH. IF THAT SETS
UP OVER US, WE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES
DEVELOPING. IF IT SETS UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH, WE END UP EITHER
DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WOULD STILL REMAIN WARM, FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BUT
LESS THAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THIS AFTERNOON. DID PUT A
PROB30 GROUP IN DIJ AFTER 21Z BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
AT THE SITE. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND NO THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN SAWTOOTH NF AND THE BLM
LANDS APPEARING TO AVOID THE RISK. WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN
ZONES 427, 413, AND 411. THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY ITSELF
HAS NO RISK OF THUNDER OR SHOWERS, WITH TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 4
DEG AND MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS CROSSING THE 90 DEGREE THRESHOLD
FOR HIGHS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THOSE SAME ELEVATIONS
CRASHING BELOW 15 PERCENT, SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SALMON-
CHALLIS NF AND THE TARGHEE NF. THIS DRYNESS CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY.
COMBINE THIS DRYNESS WITH EXTREMELY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS
(INSTABILITY) IN THE AFTERNOON, AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
HIGH INTENSITY FIRES. THE SAVING GRACE IS THE LIGHT WIND
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
ZONES 475 AND 476, THEN ISOLATED STORMS EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...GK/MESSICK
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