394
FXUS65 KPIH 050017
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
617 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RAMPS UP AGAIN STARTING SUNDAY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST EVEN WITH POSSIBLE INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND STORMS
- VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
TODAY LOOKS PRETTY CALM ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. WE
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
HIGHER RESOLUTIONS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW LITTLE/NO CHANCE OF
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD INDICATE WE
MIGHT SEE SOME VIRGA, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW. WE DO
EXPECT SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH GETS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE TRY AND MAINTAIN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE STATE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/VIRGA AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY FLUCTUATE EACH FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON TIMING OUT WHEN
WE SEE CLEARING VS MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY DAY CLOUDS AND/OR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CURRENT TRENDS ARE SHOWING MORE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAN DECENT RAIN-PRODUCERS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW THAT FLUCTUATES WITH EACH MODEL FORECAST. LOOKING AHEAD
TO AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER
35 MPH, FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID, THAT
POTENTIAL IS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO, WHICH WOULD
INDICATE THAT WHILE WE MAY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE, WE
MAY SEE VIRGA/SPRINKLES ALONG WITH STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, IF NOT
THURSDAY.
THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND MAY PROVE INTERESTING, DEPENDING ON
WHAT PATTERN DEVELOPS. THE GFS, SOME ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, AND
HALF OF THE CLUSTER FORECASTS DEVELOP A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDING INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD LIKELY DIRECT MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
MONSOON MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE IMPACT WOULD LIKELY
BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY PUSHING US TOWARD 100 FOR
HIGHS, AND NOT MUCH WIND. THE ECMWF, ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE
ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER FORECASTS, DEVELOP THE RIDGE MORE TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS OUR WAY AS
MONSOON MOISTURE WOULD BE DIRECTED AWAY FROM US. IT WOULD BE A
BIT COOLER VS THE OTHER SCENARIO, BUT ALSO BRING MORE WIND. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NO FLYING IMPACTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY WEAK WAVE JUST WEST OF IDA
CURRENTLY. AS THIS WAVE GETS CLOSER WINDS COULD GO BACK TO GUSTS
OF 20KTS UNTIL AROUND 4Z. WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY BUT STILL NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST A SLIGHT UP-TICK IN WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KTS FOR MAINLY PIH, IDA AND
DIJ.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS WILL DRY OUT TO
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURGE OF HUMIDITY
ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF MON AND INTO TUE TO BRING HUMIDITY UP
SLIGHTLY AS TEMPERATURES ALSO STAY VERY WARM FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. HOWEVER, DRYING RETURNS ON TUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SHIFTS TO A DRY WESTERLY AIRFLOW. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS UNTIL MAYBE THU. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...GK/MESSICK
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