372
FXUS65 KPIH 050442
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1042 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RAMPS UP AGAIN STARTING SUNDAY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST EVEN WITH POSSIBLE INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND STORMS
- VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
TODAY LOOKS PRETTY CALM ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. WE
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
HIGHER RESOLUTIONS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW LITTLE/NO CHANCE OF
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD INDICATE WE
MIGHT SEE SOME VIRGA, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW. WE DO
EXPECT SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH GETS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE TRY AND MAINTAIN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE STATE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/VIRGA AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY FLUCTUATE EACH FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON TIMING OUT WHEN
WE SEE CLEARING VS MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY DAY CLOUDS AND/OR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CURRENT TRENDS ARE SHOWING MORE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAN DECENT RAIN-PRODUCERS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW THAT FLUCTUATES WITH EACH MODEL FORECAST. LOOKING AHEAD
TO AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER
35 MPH, FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID, THAT
POTENTIAL IS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO, WHICH WOULD
INDICATE THAT WHILE WE MAY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE, WE
MAY SEE VIRGA/SPRINKLES ALONG WITH STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, IF NOT
THURSDAY.
THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND MAY PROVE INTERESTING, DEPENDING ON
WHAT PATTERN DEVELOPS. THE GFS, SOME ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, AND
HALF OF THE CLUSTER FORECASTS DEVELOP A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXTENDING INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD LIKELY DIRECT MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
MONSOON MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE IMPACT WOULD LIKELY
BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY PUSHING US TOWARD 100 FOR
HIGHS, AND NOT MUCH WIND. THE ECMWF, ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE
ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER FORECASTS, DEVELOP THE RIDGE MORE TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS OUR WAY AS
MONSOON MOISTURE WOULD BE DIRECTED AWAY FROM US. IT WOULD BE A
BIT COOLER VS THE OTHER SCENARIO, BUT ALSO BRING MORE WIND. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER THE MONTANA DIVIDE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOOK FOR A SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WINDS TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT SCT TO BKN
MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW. SUN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF VCSH TOMORROW BUT HAVE LEFT VCSH SHOWERS OUT SUN FOR NOW.
TSTMS LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF SUN BUT A PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN CANNOT BE RULED OUT CURRENTLY. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY JUST HAVE VIRGA MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS WILL DRY OUT TO
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURGE OF HUMIDITY
ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF MON AND INTO TUE TO BRING HUMIDITY UP
SLIGHTLY AS TEMPERATURES ALSO STAY VERY WARM FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. HOWEVER, DRYING RETURNS ON TUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SHIFTS TO A DRY WESTERLY AIRFLOW. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS UNTIL MAYBE THU. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...GK/MESSICK
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