872
FXUS65 KPIH 051716
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1116 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NOW.
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CUSTER,
LEMHI, BUTTE, AND CLARK COUNTIES TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SUN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SPC HAS PLACED LARGE PORTIONS OF CUSTER
AND LEMHI COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WHILE SOME THIN SLIVERS IN NORTHERN BUTTE AND WESTERN CLARK
COUNTIES ARE IN THE SAME BOAT. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY PERIOD, THOUGH THE
OTHER DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE BETTER
INFILTRATION OF CLOUDS DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR LATER DAYS TAKES THE EDGE OFF THE
HEATING. NONE OF THESE SMALL TROUGHS HAVE THE POWER TO GENERATE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
WIND IN THE AFTERNOON STARTS INCREASING TO THE POINT WHERE IT
WILL BE BREEZY FOR MON AND TUE.
WED THROUGH SAT...STRONGEST WIND OF THE WEEK IS WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS, BUT IT STAYS ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
G30KT VERY POSSIBLE FOR WED AND THU.
STARTING THU, THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS SOUTHERLY AND MORE WESTERLY. WHILE
THE FIRST BATCH OF AIR MOVING IN PROVIDES SOME COOLING DUE TO AN
AIR MASS CHANGE, IT QUICKLY HEATS UP, TO WHERE BY THE WEEKEND
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE REACHING THE UPPER 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MID-MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE BUT FAIRLY
TRANSPARENT ALTOCU CLOUD DECK THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE TICKS UPWARD EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FUEL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BY 21Z WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXTENDING PERHAPS BACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH
KSUN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS TO KSUN IS FAIRLY LIMITED AT
THIS POINT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF TEMPORARY
IMPACTS EXISTS IN KDIJ WHERE WE SHOULD ALSO SEE INITIATION OFF
OF THE BIG HOLES AND SNAKE RIVER RANGE. OUTSIDE OF THESE PORTS,
WE'LL SEE ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
KPIH AND KIDA.
TONIGHT AFTER DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WANE, WE'LL
SEE SOME LIMITED CLEARING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. HI-
RES MODELS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE ARRIVING
FROM SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE A FEW VCSH FOR NOW FOR
KBYI AND KSUN MONDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT THE
POTENTIAL IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
INCREDIBLY UNSTABLE AIR DEVELOPS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, WITH
MIXING HEIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS EXCEEDING 20,000FT MSL.
COUPLE THIS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT 700MB AND SHOULD A FIRE GET
ESTABLISHED, EXPECT HIGH INTENSITY FUEL DRIVEN WILDFIRE.
FORTUNATELY, WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TODAY. THE MIXING
HEIGHT AND INSTABILITY DROPS OFF FOR MON AND TUE, BUT IT DOESN'T
STOP THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY HAS TRIGGERED A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER FOR TODAY OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TARGHEE NF.
WIND GETS STRONGER TUE AND BY WED AND THU, GUSTS HITTING AT
LEAST NEAR 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
THIS LEADS TO WHAT IS THE HUMIDITY DOING. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY EXPECTED TODAY WITH ALL
BUT THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE TARGHEE NF HAVING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY FORECASTED BELOW 15 PERCENT. AS SOME MOISTURE
MOVING IN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO,
THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE UP, BUT STILL SOME POCKETS OF
BELOW 15 PERCENT CONTINUE. THE AREA OF LOW HUMIDITY SHIFTS
AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THAT, INCLUDING WED AND
THU. BOTH DAYS APPEAR RIPE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ZONES IF THE FUELS ARE
RECEPTIVE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...TAX
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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