735
FXUS65 KPIH 051904
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
104 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAMPING UP AS EXPECTED TODAY AND
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS 50-85%
CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 60 MPH. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS, SO WE DO EXPECT A MIX OF
RAIN- PRODUCERS AND VIRGA/SPRINKLES. FARTHER SOUTH, THERE IS A
DECENT AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS
HERE IS PRETTY LOW AT THE MOMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30-70%
CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. THIS WOULD INDICATE MAINLY
VIRGA/SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL. THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE SHIFTS INTO
MONTANA. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, BUT
THE CHANCE IS UNDER 15%. IF THE TREND CONTINUES LATER TODAY, WE
MAY NEED TO BUMP THAT UP TO 15-25% PERCENT. TIMING OF THIS PUSH
PUTS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN. AGAIN, EXPECT A MIX OF QUICK RAIN-PRODUCERS
AND VIRGA/SPRINKLES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL ON WHERE WE GET SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST BLEND OF MODELS, AND HIGHER RESOLUTION PROBABILITY
FORECASTS WANT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND DOWN ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE TO LEAVE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE REALITY OF IT WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IS THAT WE MAY NOT GET A TRUE SENSE WHERE STORMS
FORM UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. THE TREND OF SOME CHANCE OF RAIN
AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 80 TO LOWER 90S AS WELL.
WE SEE CLEARING STARTING THURSDAY AS A LOW TO OUR NORTH SWEEPS
THE MONSOON PUSH EAST AND BRINGS DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IDAHO. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS WELL.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH
AND SHIFTING NORTH. THERE IS STILL A 60/40 SPLIT IN THE
CLUSTERS, AS WELL AS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THE FAVORED TREND IS KEEPING THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
DIRECT MONSOON MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF AND
REST OF THE CLUSTERS SET UP A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING
MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BLEND OF MODELS IS FAVORING THE DRY SCENARIO, AS WELL AS HOTTER
SCENARIO. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN 90-100 RANGE FOR THE
VALLEYS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE COOLER SCENARIO PUTS US BACK INTO
THE 80-90 DEGREE RANGE BASED ON THE RANGE IN THE BLEND OF
MODELS. THE HIGH END RANGE IN THE BLEND HAS MID 90 TO AROUND
105. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRETTY STRONG. THERE IS ALSO AN ONGOING ISSUE WITH HIGH END
TEMPERATURES BEING TOO EXTREME WITH THE BLEND FORECASTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MID-MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE BUT FAIRLY
TRANSPARENT ALTOCU CLOUD DECK THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE TICKS UPWARD EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FUEL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BY 21Z WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXTENDING PERHAPS BACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH
KSUN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS TO KSUN IS FAIRLY LIMITED AT
THIS POINT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF TEMPORARY
IMPACTS EXISTS IN KDIJ WHERE WE SHOULD ALSO SEE INITIATION OFF
OF THE BIG HOLES AND SNAKE RIVER RANGE. OUTSIDE OF THESE PORTS,
WE'LL SEE ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
KPIH AND KIDA.
TONIGHT AFTER DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WANE, WE'LL
SEE SOME LIMITED CLEARING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. HI-
RES MODELS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE ARRIVING
FROM SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE A FEW VCSH FOR NOW FOR
KBYI AND KSUN MONDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT THE
POTENTIAL IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS HAS BROUGHT SUMMER-
LIKE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. NOW THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
AND CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND PASSING DISTURBANCE IS AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
AND FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTREMELY DRY
LOW-LEVELS AND INSTABILITY WOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSE FIRE BEHAVIOR,
SHOULD ONE ESTABLISH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO LEAD TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF THIS THREAT, WINDS SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD FUEL ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WE COULD SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, FUEL CONDITIONS
OVER ZONES 475, AND 476 HAVE NOT BEEN AS RECEPTIVE AS OTHER FIRE
ZONES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED.
MIDWEEK WILL BRING A PERIOD OF TRANSITION BACK TOWARDS WARMING AND
DRYING CONDITIONS. WE'LL SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO MORE WIND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH
VALUES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL WEDNESDAY, BUT CONTINUED DRYING THURSDAY
MEANS THAT RFW CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COME BACK TO THE AREA.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS ONLY BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND AT LEAST 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS,
WHERE READINGS IN THE 90S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...TAX
FIRE WEATHER...TAX
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