262
FXUS65 KPIH 062336
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
536 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
EARLY CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN HAS LED TO
POTENTIALLY A SLIGHT DELAY IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE WE CAN
MAXIMIZE SUNSHINE AND HITTING THE MAGIC "NUMBER" FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO POP OFF. THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND HIGHER
END GUSTS HITTING 55-60 MPH. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS ALSO WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS. SOME STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE A
DECENT BURST OF RAIN, WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THE RISK OF STORMS CONTINUES EAST
OF I-15 PAST MIDNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW, IT LOOKS LIKE TWO DISTINCT
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
ONE IS FROM MACKAY TO ISLAND PARK, INCLUDING THE FAR NORTHERN
END OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS THERE
OVER 35 MPH. THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
STORMS SHIFTING NORTH OFF TERRAIN (POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES) AS WELL. ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, THERE IS A 50-90%
CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. SOME STORMS FARTHER SOUTH ALSO HAVE
A HIGHER CHANCE OF BEING DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG
OUTFLOW ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. LIKE TOMORROW,
THERE IS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL DOWN SOUTH.
WE ARE EXPECTING DRY AND HOTTER CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, IF NOT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
IN FLUX, AS THERE IS STILL A 60/40 SPLIT IN WHAT MODELS, ENSEMBLES,
AND CLUSTER FORECASTS DEPICT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE "60% CLUB"
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER RIDGING FARTHER WEST, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND PUSH MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WEST UNTIL TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECASTS, ETC. DEPICT THE RIDGE
NEVER PUSHING FAR ENOUGH WEST, AND THE MONSOON PUSH ARRIVES SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH
HIGHS RAPIDLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN SOME
SPOTS. RIGHT NOW, THE BLEND OF MODELS IS DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE
BLEND HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. IF WE END UP HOLDING THE MONSOON
FARTHER WEST, OR WE CAN GET MORE SUNSHINE OVERALL, HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY COULD EASILY HIT THE LOW TO MID 90S IN COLDER VALLEYS
LIKE STANLEY. WARMER VALLEYS WOULD EASILY BE 100-105. THE
HIGHEST END OF THE RANGE SHOWN IN BLEND MAY BE SHOWING AN
ONGOING BIAS TOWARD BEING TOO EXTREME, SO IT IS SOMETHING TO AT
LEAST WATCH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FOR NOW, ONCE THE MONSOON
PATTERN SETS UP, WE MAY SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCLUDING A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED EARLIER ARE CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD. SOME OF THESE COULD HAVE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BUT SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE.
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOW THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING ON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WITH A DISTURBANCE STREAMING WEST OF THE
AREA, THIS SEEMS QUITE PLAUSIBLE. WE'LL LIKELY SEE THIS ACTIVITY
LULL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
EASTERN IDAHO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY FOR ZONES 413 AND 427 WHERE THINK THERE
IS A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEMS
CAUSING THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EXTREMELY
HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
MANY LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR IDZ413-427.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...TAX
FIRE WEATHER...GK/13
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