842
FXUS65 KPIH 230013
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
613 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING FLASH FLOOD RISK TODAY: DENSE CLOUD COVER DELAYED
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT ABNORMALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST STORM
POTENTIAL CENTERS ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WITH ISOLATED
THREAT AREAS EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FLOOD WATCH
ZONE.
- RAPID REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES: MUTED DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO BUILDING HEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
CLOUD COVER CLEARS AND A HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
- EXTENDED LATE-JULY HEAT: A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT REGIME
TAKES OVER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID-TO- UPPER 90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES
RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. EXTENSIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER EFFECTIVELY CAPPED DIURNAL HEATING, SUPPRESSING OVERALL
THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
THAT THE CLOUD CAP IS BEGINNING TO ERODE, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOW UNDERWAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WHILE RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS)—INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR RUNS—HAVE NOTICEABLY DIALED
BACK FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND OVERALL STORM COVERAGE,
THE AMBIENT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ABNORMALLY MOISTURE-LADEN BY
LOCAL STANDARDS. WITH RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION, ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FROM A GEOGRAPHIC STANDPOINT, THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT TARGETS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THE SIGNAL IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS—WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT—BUT EVEN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE COULD QUICKLY PROVE PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESSED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS DUE TO CLOUD SHADING.
THIS REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. HEAT BEGINS
RETURNING ON THURSDAY AS HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE REGION AND DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE
SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
LOW-END SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY, THE VAST MAJORITY OF EASTERN IDAHO WILL BEGIN
TRANSITIONING TOWARD A DRY, TYPICAL LATE-SUMMER REGIME.
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL FIRMLY LOCK INTO PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH ISOLATED, TERRAIN-FORCED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL
BE PERSISTENT, UNSEASONABLY HIGH HEAT. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS—INCLUDING THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY—ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS APPROACHING THE
100-DEGREE MARK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS TONIGHT THEN TAKE IT OUT LATE
AFTER 06Z. SKY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. DO NOT HAVE ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDER IN THURSDAY TAFS, SO OVERALL NOT SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS OR VERY MINIMAL TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO GET GOING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IF THE LATEST CAMS ARE TO BE BELIEVED,
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE UP IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS, MAINLY FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 411, 413, 475, AND 476. THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT THE
OTHER ZONES WILL BE COMPLETELY LEFT OUT, BUT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE INSTEAD. STORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING RAINS TODAY AS PWATS REMAIN
QUITE ELEVATED, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1- 1.50 INCHES ACROSS OUR
COVERAGE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS LOOKS VERY LOW
WITH MOST LIKELY WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE.
THE FLOODING THREAT IS THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WITH A FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FWZ 410, 411, AND 413 AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WAPITI BURN SCAR. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN ON THE RECENT OHIO FIRE BURN SCAR, TOO. AFTER
TODAY, DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN, TOO. WHILE WE WILL KEEP
AROUND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER DAYS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BETTER PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY,
BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS
POINT. IF WE CAN REACH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM LEVELS ON SATURDAY
AND WE SEE BREEZY WINDS IN SOME DRIER AREAS, IT COULD BE THE
NEXT POTENTIAL DAY FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ058>066.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...AMM
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