272
FXUS65 KPIH 241742
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1142 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SURGING HEAT & HEAT ADVISORY TODAY: A BUILDING FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S TODAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS—INCLUDING THE SNAKE PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY,
ARCO DESERT, SHOSHONE, AND SOUTH HILLS — WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH 95°F TO 100°F.
- SHIFT TO MIXED WET/DRY STORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS RANGING 40 TO
50 MPH AND SMALL TO MODERATE HAIL.
- SATURDAY SHORTWAVE & GUSTY WINDS: A PASSING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY WILL BRIEFLY ELEVATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WHILE GENERATING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONE 427 AS LATEST HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY
EXIST OVER A LARGER AREA TOMORROW WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD RFW
POTENTIALLY BEING NEEDED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS, WE SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON PUSH. THE LATEST CAMS
FEATURE INCREASED STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THEY INCREASE TO
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN THE MID- TO UPPER-90S ACROSS THE LOW
ELEVATIONS AND 80S IN THE MID-ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MANY OF OUR VALLEY
LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY,
ARCO DESERT, SHOSHONE REGION, AND SOUTH HILLS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY-LEANING PATTERN. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THUS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHETHER IT BE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OR THE COMBINATION OF LOW MIN RH AND WINDS AS WE
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE
HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS WILL FIRE AND HOW MUCH
COVERAGE OF STORMS WE ACTUALLY SEE, SO TAFS CONTINUE TO CARRY PROB30
OF -TSRA FROM 20/21Z TO AROUND 02/03Z AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM IMPACTING ANY SINGLE SITE IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT IF A STRONGER
STORM DOES PASS OVER, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 KTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND LIGHTNING. IT WOULD ALSO LIKELY BRING
IMPACTS TO MVFR CIGS/VIS. OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG WARNINGS ON
SATURDAY. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALONG WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THEY INCREASE TO
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN THE MID- TO UPPER-90S ACROSS THE LOW
ELEVATIONS AND 80S IN THE MID-ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED, WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY-LEANING
PATTERN. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE MIN RH WILL SPAN SUB-20 PERCENT ACROSS
ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES ASIDE FROM 411, 413, AND 427.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ051>057.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ427.
UPDATE...AMM
DISCUSSION...CROPP
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...CROPP
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