612
FXUS65 KPIH 250343
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
943 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT & EXPANDING ADVISORIES: A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S WITH ISOLATED
100°F READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY.
- DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS & STORMS: PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE, TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS WILL FAVOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY
CHARACTERISTICS.
- PERSISTENT PATTERN NEXT WEEK: AN ANCHORED FOUR CORNERS RIDGE
WILL LOCK IN ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING LOWER-ELEVATION HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND
LIKELY NECESSITATING ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SUMMER HEAT PAIRED WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
NARRATIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR LOWER-ELEVATION ZONES.
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY SURGED WELL INTO THE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW ISOLATED TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY BEFORE
PEAK HEATING SUBSIDES. WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO PRODUCE A NEAR-
IDENTICAL THERMAL PROFILE, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS PUSHED TO COVER
SATURDAY AS WELL.
HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
MIX OF BOTH WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERS INTO MID-WEEK. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH CAPTURING THE DIURNAL
CYCLE OF THESE TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POPS IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. CONSEQUENTLY, EXPECT BASELINE RAIN CHANCES TO BE NUDGED
UPWARD AS INDIVIDUAL FORECAST DAYS SHIFT INTO THE HIGHER-
RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM WINDOW OVER THE DAYS AHEAD.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PERSISTENT FOUR CORNERS HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ANCHORED THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOWER-ELEVATION HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
90S THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY PERIOD, MAKING ADDITIONAL HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES VERY LIKELY AS THE PATTERN UNFOLDS.
6.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
STILL DEALING WITH CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH PIH/BYI MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE ISSUES, MAINLY WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS SEEM TO BE
STAYING UP AT PIH SO IT MAY TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT FOR
THE WINDS TO RELAX. STILL SEEING INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ELSEWHERE. SUN SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
LOCATION WHERE THE ODDS OF A STORM OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. EXPECT A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE
PUSHING BACK THE ONSET SOME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 427 (SOUTH HILLS) CONTINUES
UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM ON SATURDAY. BOTH
OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN IDAHO
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTH HILLS, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. OUR SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY
WHERE THESE STORMS WILL BE AND HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL ACTUALLY
SEE, BUT THERE IS BEST CONSENSUS ON FWZ 427 TODAY. MOST OF OUR
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP ON RADAR SO FAR ARE GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-
84/86 WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST. STORMS TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH THE SPC NOW
OUTLINING MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ON SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT DISAGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF SAID LINE. THE NAM
SETS UP THE LINE THROUGH FWZ 427 AND 410 WHILE THE HRRR SETS IT UP
THROUGH FWZ 427 AND 413. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE LINE WILL BE, THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERS ALL 3 FIRE
WEATHER ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO ON SATURDAY, WE WILL BE VERY NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA UP IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN FWZ 475 AND 576. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE
RHS WILL BE AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
SUNDAY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AND STILL BREEZY, SO PERHAPS THE RFW WILL
BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES. WE REMAIN BREEZY IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ON SUNDAY, TOO, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND RHS
OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ051>057.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ410-413-
427.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...AMM
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