534
FXUS65 KPIH 250819
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT & EXPANDING ADVISORIES: A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S WITH ISOLATED
100°F READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS & STORMS: PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE, TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. STORMS WILL FAVOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS.
MANY RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE STORMS.
- PERSISTENT PATTERN NEXT WEEK: AN ANCHORED FOUR CORNERS RIDGE
WILL LOCK IN ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING LOWER-ELEVATION HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND
LIKELY NECESSITATING ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SUMMER HEAT PAIRED WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
NARRATIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR LOWER-ELEVATION ZONES.
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY SURGED WELL INTO THE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW ISOLATED TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY BEFORE
PEAK HEATING SUBSIDES. WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO PRODUCE A NEAR-
IDENTICAL THERMAL PROFILE, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS PUSHED TO COVER
SATURDAY AS WELL.
HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE TO
SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
MIX OF BOTH WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERS INTO MID-WEEK. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH CAPTURING THE DIURNAL
CYCLE OF THESE TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POPS IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. CONSEQUENTLY, EXPECT BASELINE RAIN CHANCES TO BE NUDGED
UPWARD AS INDIVIDUAL FORECAST DAYS SHIFT INTO THE HIGHER-
RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM WINDOW OVER THE DAYS AHEAD.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PERSISTENT FOUR CORNERS HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ANCHORED THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOWER-ELEVATION HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
90S THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY PERIOD, MAKING ADDITIONAL HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES VERY LIKELY AS THE PATTERN UNFOLDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
STILL DEALING WITH CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH PIH/BYI MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE ISSUES, MAINLY WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS SEEM TO BE
STAYING UP AT PIH SO IT MAY TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT FOR
THE WINDS TO RELAX. STILL SEEING INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ELSEWHERE. SUN SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
LOCATION WHERE THE ODDS OF A STORM OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. EXPECT A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE
PUSHING BACK THE ONSET SOME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONES 410, 413, AND 427 FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. WILL
HAVE NEAR SCATTERED COVERAGE IN ZONES 425 AND 411 AS WELL WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE IN 476. STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY. FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS FOR CONTINUING VERY
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE GOING FORWARD BEYOND SUNDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ051>057.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ410-413-427.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...GK
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