961
FXUS65 KPIH 251822
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1222 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
- MONSOON MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
- CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
OUR PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
ACROSS THE SOUTH HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS,
THROUGH DRIGGS AND THE TETON VALLEY. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FROM MACKAY THROUGH GILMORE SUMMIT AND INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
FOR MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS
A 10-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, AND UP TO 90% ELSEWHERE, WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER 60
MPH. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, GUSTS TODAY ARE FORECAST IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. OVERNIGHT, WE EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAVA BEDS AROUND SHOSHONE. WE
CURRENTLY ARE NOT PUTTING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, THE
CHANCE IS NOT ZERO. FOR TOMORROW, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA SHOULD BE FROM AROUND MALTA TO DRIGGS.
THERE IS A 20-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. WIND GUSTS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN, MAGIC
VALLEY, AND SOUTH HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS. WE HAVE EXTENDED IT
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, AS WELL AS ADDED VALLEY LOCATIONS DOWN
TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER THROUGH MALAD AND THE CACHE VALLEY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.TEMPERATURES DO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY, WHICH MAY PUT US
JUST UNDER ANY THRESHOLDS FOR CONTINUING HEADLINES FOR HEATRISK.
ALTHOUGH ALL IT WILL TAKE IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO CREEP BACK UP
A FEW DEGREES AND WE WILL BE BACK INTO HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY.
THE MODELS ARE AGAIN TRENDING DRIER, MAYBE NOT 100% STORM-FREE
INITIALLY, BUT STILL DRIER FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST,
PUSH THE BULK OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
MAY INITIALLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT MORE, BUT RETURN US
TO SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW.
THE PATTERN DOES LOOK BREEZY, WHICH ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS MAY INFLUENCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. SUN IS THE ONLY
SITE THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY TODAY, BUT THERE
IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY AT SUN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IF A STORM PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL, EXPECT DROPS IN VIS/CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS, THOUGH WE DID BRIEFLY SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
STORM OR TWO YESTERDAY OVER PIH. WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS TODAY
WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS AND EXPECT SIMILAR WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY,
TOO. WINDS WITH STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTING TO 45 KTS, THOUGH
ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS COULD EVEN GUST CLOSER TO 50-55 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
RED FLAG WARNING TODAY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 413, AND 427. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 60
MPH AS MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE SPC. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, BUT IT WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
STORMS.
ON SUNDAY, CAMS ARE PICKING UP SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE SEE A FEW MORE
ISOLATED STORMS POP UP ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND THOSE WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE SOUTH HILLS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS OFF THE TERRAIN.
WE ARE GOING TO BRUSHING RIGHT UP AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
IN FWZ 475 AND 476 ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE AS GUSTS
WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH, BUT THIS NEW INTRODUCTION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY COULD BRING UP MIN RHS TO MORE OF THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
REGARDLESS OF ANY RED FLAG WARNING OR LACK THEREOF ON SUNDAY, WE
WILL STILL SEE NEAR-CRITITAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF EASTERN IDAHO DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RHS. EVERYONE CAN EXPECT
WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AND MIN RHS BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT WITH SOME
PARTS OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLY DROPPING TO
CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT. IF THERE ARE ANY HIDING HOLD-OVERS FROM THIS
WEEK'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM FLARE UP
TOMORROW (IF THEY DON'T TODAY).
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY, THOUGH A FEW OF THE CAMS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS LOW. EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR IDZ051>059.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-413-
427.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...AMM
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