149
FXUS65 KPIH 080810
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
210 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ON AND OFF FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT DECREASED AIR QUALITY AT TIMES WITH
AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR CUSTER COUNTY.
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, SOUTH
HILLS, AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE SOUTH HILLS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE HEAT IS THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, SOUTH HILLS, AND
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. IT'S WITHIN THESE AREAS THAT HIGHS TODAY WILL
PUSH TOWARDS 100 DEGREES AGAIN AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
CONFINED TO CUSTER COUNTY WHERE AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND SMOKE,
A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA, WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OUT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARCO DESERT. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE (10 TO 15 PERCENT) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTH HILLS AND UP NORTH ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA DIVIDE
AS A BIT OF MOISTURE DOES ITS BEST TO WORK UP AND AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE A NEARLY IDENTICAL
WEATHER DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS FLATTENED A BIT EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHERE THAT
LOW WILL TRACK THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK IS NOT EXACTLY
RESOLVED YET BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE WEEK, FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
NEXT FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE AROUND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND THAT WE FINALLY SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SOME MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER EACH AND EVERY
AIRDROME ON SAT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
WEATHER FOR OVER A WEEK IS STARTING TO DETERIORATE AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. TSRA MADE IT TO THE ID-UT BORDER ON FRI AFTERNOON, AND
THIS AREA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ID ON SAT, SO THERE IS
ACTUALLY A VCSH FOR KBYI. BUT IT WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND STRONGLY OUT OF THE WEST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THIS MID- AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP SOME CIGS, BUT AT THAT ELEVATION THEY ARE
NOT IMPACTFUL. MOSTLY LIKELY CIG AIRPORTS ARE KPIH AND KBYI.
WILDFIRE FU CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, GROWING
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP FU FROM IMPACTING VSBY
MUCH IN THAT TIME OF DAY, SAVE PERHAPS FOR KSUN WHEN THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHES THE FU INTO THE WOOD RIVER
VALLEY. KPIH AND KIDA HAVE A RISK IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE
INVERSION BREAKS.
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
G20KT OR G25KT POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED OF 15KT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON DIRECTION SHOULD BE BASED ON SLOPE-VALLEY
PHENOMENON AND NOT AN ISSUE OF CROSS WIND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 475 AND 476) LATER TODAY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW MIN RHS. WITHIN THIS AREA, MIN RHS
WILL FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WE WILL SEE NEAR-CRITIAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND MIN RHS OF 10
TO 20 PERCENT. A VERY SMALL CHANCE (10 TO 15 PERCENT) OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST TODAY IN THE SOUTH HILLS AND ISLAND PARK
AREA AS JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW
CHANGE. TROUGHING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL DROP AFTERNOON HIGHS BY JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY AS WIND GUSTS STAY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS IN
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE SEE THE CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE.
AIR QUALITY
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUSTER COUNTY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO AIR QUALITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
"MODERATE" TO "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" CATEGORIES.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ051>059-062.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 3 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ068>074.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ475-476.
DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER...AMM
AIR QUALITY...AMM
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