315
FXUS65 KPIH 091720
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1120 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS.
- VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED (VIRGA) SHOWER OR STORM THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE SOUTH HILLS, VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ON AND OFF FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT DECREASED AIR QUALITY AT TIMES WITH
AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR CUSTER COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE HEAT CONTINUES TODAY, THOUGH WE WILL BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
"COOLER" THAN YESTERDAY. STILL, EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AGAIN TODAY DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS. WE STAY JUST BARELY BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH TO 30 MPH. IN THE SAME VEIN AS SATURDAY'S
FORECAST, THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (AGAIN, ABOUT 10 PERCENT)
FOR A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. YOU ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UNDER ANY RADAR RETURNS TODAY THAN
ANY RAINFALL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD GETS FLATTENED
JUST A BIT DUE TO TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK AHEAD, AND WHILE THIS DOESN'T CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH, IT
WILL DROP OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THAT WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW 80S BY THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. AT THIS POINT, WE WILL LOOK FORWARD TO ANY PRECIPITATION WE
CAN WRING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
MAIN IMPACT REMAINS SMOKE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. IT WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO 4 STATUTE MILES OR 5 AT SUN, BYI, AND IDA.
HAVE SOME TEMPO GROUPS DOWN TO 5 AT SUN, IDA AND BYI. PIH KEPT
AT 6. VFR SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR NOW KEPT ANY VICINITY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY AT IDA, PIH, SUN, AND DIJ.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 475 AND 476 IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS. CONSIDERED ADDING ZONE 410 TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY AS IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA, BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. EITHER WAY, EXPECT ELEVATED, NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH EASTERN IDAHO ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY LOW RHS AND BREEZY WINDS. IT APPEARS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE ON MONDAY, SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS TODAY ABOUT ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR MONDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RETURNS VISIBLE
ON RADAR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION TO ACTUALLY
FALL AS IT ALL REMAINS VIRGA. SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50
MPH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AROUND THOSE RETURNS.
A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO, RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN THROUGH LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL BY MID-WEEK, TURNING COOLER THAN
NORMAL LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH MODELS INDICATING THE RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AIR QUALITY
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUSTER COUNTY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO AIR QUALITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
"MODERATE" TO "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" CATEGORIES.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 3 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ068>074.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ475-476.
DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...CROPP/AMM
AIR QUALITY...AMM
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