233
FXUS65 KPIH 101848
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1248 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN/SHOSHONE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS.
- VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED (VIRGA) SHOWER OR STORM
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE SOUTH HILLS.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ON AND OFF FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT DECREASED AIR QUALITY AT TIMES WITH
AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR CUSTER COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE LEADING EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THERE. OTHERWISE, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MANY
OF OUR VALLEY COMMUNITIES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE BIGGER PUSH
OF MOISTURE DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUDS
FOR MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THURSDAY LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AND SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. WE REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON
FLOW INTO FRIDAY. DEBATABLE OF HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE WE ACTUALLY
HAVE ON FRIDAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
IF WE CAN GET STORMS TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
MAIN IMPACT TODAY IS GOING TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS WHICH
ARE IN TAFS AT SUN, IDA, PIH AND DIJ AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z WHEN THEY DIE DOWN. DO NOT THINK BYI WILL GUST
MUCH MORE THAN 15 KNOTS AND DO NOT HAVE GUSTS IN TAFS BUT MAINLY
A LOWER PROBABILITY THAN THE OTHER THREE SITES. WILL REMAIN VFR
AND DO NOT HAVE SMOKE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THIS SET OF
TAFS, BUT NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS. RED
FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 425,
475, AND 476, WHERE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES AND WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. WE ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED POCKETS OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE ELSEWHERE, AS WELL, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR RFW ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW AND
WE THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RFWS FOR TOMORROW.
A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL-
DOWN THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL OR JUST BELOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK, TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL LATE WEEK. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THE NEXT COUPLE
AFTERNOONS, THE MAIN MONSOON SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RAISE HUMIDITIES AND PROVIDE
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN, WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT ALSO INTRODUCE
THE RISK OF LIGHTNING. ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO
COORDINATE THE NEXT ROUND OF RFWS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-425-
475-476.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...CROPP
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