036
FXUS65 KPIH 070812
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
212 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
NORTHERN AREAS IN CUSTER, CLARK, FREMONT, AND LEMHI COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FREMONT AND CLARK COUNTIES TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON STARTS A WARM-UP ON TUE.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON THU.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
TODAY THROUGH THU...AT DISCUSSION TIME, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT BY MORNING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FOUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES: CUSTER, LEMHI, CLARK, AND FREMONT. WOULD EXPECT NO
MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONDITIONS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL DAY TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, BUT THE WARM-UP WILL OVERCOME THIS
COLD START AS CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE PASSING FRONT LAST NIGHT PUSHED WINDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
THIS OVERNIGHT, BUT WIND HAS SUBSIDED ALREADY AND SHOULD NOT
INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL THE NEXT TROUGH MAKES AN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON THU AFTERNOON. LIMITED AREAS MAY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
OF HUMIDITY AND GUSTS THAT AFTERNOON FOR WILDFIRE DANGER.
THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH A EAST-WEST
ORIENTED TROUGH SLIDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN
IDAHO. HOWEVER, JUST HOW FAR SOUTH IT DIGS IS CONSIDERABLY
DIFFERENT IN THE ENSEMBLES. FOUR CLUSTERS RESULT, ALL WITH 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. ABOUT 50 PERCENT HAVE THE LOW FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY NORTH) ON SAT AND SUN.
THE OTHER 40 PERCENT SHOWS THE TROUGH STAYING FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TO LESSEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS. WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT
SUN/DIJ. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IDAHO. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (422/475/476) AND ALONG/EAST OF
I-15 IN ZONES 410, 411, AND 413. MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS UP TO AROUND 0.15". AMOUNTS OF
CLOSER TO 0.30" NORTH OF STANLEY THROUGH AREAS WEST OF U.S 93
(422 AND 475), AS WELL AS ACROSS ZONE 413 AND THE BIG HOLES.
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THAT AMOUNT IN THOSE
ZONES. IT IS PLAUSIBLE IF WE CAN GET SOME STRONGER STORMS GOING
AND/OR SEE MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE SAME LOCATION. IT ALSO LOOKS
LIKE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THAT A
SHORT WINDOW OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 10,000FT. STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND
POTENTIALLY OVER 60 MPH. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER EXTENDING INTO
THE SNAKE PLAIN. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BEFORE GIVING WAY TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON LABOR
DAY. GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OUTSIDE OF STORMS AND MARGINAL HUMIDITY
(DROPPING TO NEAR 15%) WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONES 410,
413, 425, AND 427. SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, IF NOT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT, HOWEVER HUMIDITY COMES
UP QUITE A BIT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TODAY.
WE STILL ARE EXPECTING TO BE DRY FOR MIDWEEK. WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO SEE HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE
WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND BACK INTO IDAHO FROM THE
WEST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CONNECTION AT THE MOMENT,
EVEN TRYING TO STILL GRAB SOME SURGE FROM WHAT'S LEFT OF MARIE.
AT THE MOMENT, THE BLEND OF MODELS IS DRY OR KEEPING ANY CHANCE
UNDER 10%. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS
HIGHS JUMP BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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