121
FXUS65 KPIH 270320
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
920 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER TODAY, ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN
FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE
PACNW TODAY, BEHIND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TODAY IN POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE,
AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A SPRINKLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, WITH A BETTER SIGNAL FOR A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED QPF AND POP UP SLIGHTLY FROM NBM
CONSENSUS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS DO WARM UP SLIGHTLY FOR
SUNDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO HAVE
BETTER CONFIDENCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. FROM THERE, ENSEMBLES STILL FAVOR REBUILDING A SHALLOW
RIDGE OVER IDAHO INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT WARM UP LATE IN THE WEAK
AHEAD OF POTENTIAL TROUGH ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
CLUSTER DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND DEPTH, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW FOR NOW ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 920 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING AND IF IT SHOULD, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SO
WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
EXPECT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR ZONE 411.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN ZONES 422, 475, AND 476 SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FOR
MAINLY ZONES 411, 413 AND, TO A LESSER DEGREE, ZONE 410, SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL. MONDAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES.
LOOK FOR OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHETHER THERE
WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY OR NOT. LOOK FOR NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOME WIND GUSTS 15 TO
25 MPH TODAY MAINLY ZONE 410 AND 427 TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...TW
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