439
FXUS65 KPIH 051653
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1053 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHERWISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS BY NEXT
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS IS ALREADY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS,
BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL SEE ANY RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS. ANY REAL
THREAT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS UP NORTH
SHOULD END LATER THIS EVENING, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HILLS AND
ALBION MOUNTAINS. WE MAY THAT AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS TOMORROW, BUT LIKELY DISSIPATING BY
THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS, THOUGH. THERE IS A 10-40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
WITH DEVELOPMENT DOWN SOUTH, INCLUDING OUTFLOW WINDS PUSHING OUT
INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ENCROACHING ON DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
BY THE WEEKEND, ALL MODELS/ENSEMBLES/AI MODELS ARE SHOWING A
LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE WEST. WHILE THE
IDEA SEEMS PRETTY SOLID, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND HOW DEEP THIS
DEVELOPS REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. OUR BLEND OF MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA, ALONG
WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LOWER END OF BLEND FORECASTS IS ACTUALLY EVEN COOLER THAN THAT,
SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
OVERALL MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND HAVE VICINITY OVERNIGHT AT BYI
AND SUN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRING ON SITE. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MOST OF THIS WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE ONLY BLIP ON THE RADAR (PUN INTENDED) WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE WE MAY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, ANY
REAL CHANCE (STILL NO HIGHER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE) WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS (427) PUSHING EAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER (413). LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH A 10-40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ACROSS ZONE
427 AND OUTFLOW THAT PUSHED NORTH INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN PRETTY DRY, INCLUDING SOME
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ZONE 427. BY NEXT WEEKEND, A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL QUICK TREND TOWARD WET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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