858
FXUS65 KPIH 071102
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
502 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND
- MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE COMING STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF
RACHEL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE WEATHER UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINS PRETTY STAGNANT.
WE RARE GENTLE NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WILL KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST DAYS, BUT STILL RUN
QUITE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. WE WILL BEGIN TO
SEE THE FIRST INFLUENCES OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING BUT STAY DRY. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN AND SNOW DURING THAT PERIOD. THE LOW DROPS OVER OREGON AND
WASHINGTON AND BEGINS TO CLOSED OFF. WE WILL DROP INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWS 70S IN THE VALLEYS AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
INCREASE. ONE OF THE POTENTIAL FORECAST "SOLUTIONS" SINCE LAST
WEEK IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES IS TAKING THE LOW QUICKLY
TO OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND WE END UP INITIALLY WITH SPLIT
FLOW OVER IDAHO. AT LEAST FOR TODAY, THAT APPEARS THE MAIN
FORECAST IDEA ACROSS MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND AI VERSIONS OF
THOSE MODELS. WHILE STILL ONE OF THE IDEAS WITH THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS, THEY STILL SHOW THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF THE LOW NOT
DROPPING THAT FAR SOUTH. WITH THE CURRENT TREND TOWARD THE MORE
SOUTHERN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL OF DRAWING
IN THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL AND PRODUCING A BIT OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS MORNING, THE
BLEND OF MODELS DOES SHOW THAT WITH 1"+ AMOUNTS. WE WILL SEE
THAT CHANGE? LIKELY SINCE WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND WE SEE
BIG SWINGS SOMETIMES WITH THE MODELS IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS. THE
KEEP IN MIND WITH SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY, THE OVERALL IDEA
STILL REMAINS THE SAME...COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS. THERE IS
STILL HINT WE WILL SEE SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE CHANCE IS STILL
VERY, VERY LOW FOR ANY SNOW ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS, BUT THAT IS
TRENDING CLOSER TO ZERO AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
DRY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY THE FORECAST
ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS INCLUDE MODERATE TO POOR
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY. WE START TO SEE SOME CHANGES FRIDAY
AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL EASTERN IDAHO. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HUMIDITY, WE MIGHT ISSUES WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY ARRIVES STARTING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COOL ENOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER. THE BLEND OF MODELS IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE LOW DROPPING ALL THE WAY TO OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE
SHIFTING INLAND. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THIS BEING A
POSSIBLE SOLUTION, BUT ALSO STILL SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO US AS ANOTHER IDEA. WITH THIS TREND, THIS MIGHT ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM RACHEL TO GET PULLED NORTH INTO IDAHO AND DUMP
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE. IS THAT CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT? NO. WE DO EXPECT SOME
CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT FROM
SEEING WHAT EXACTLY ENDS UP TRANSPIRING.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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