288
FXUS65 KPIH 081013
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
413 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF "CALM WEATHER" BEFORE MAJOR CHANGES
BEGIN
- WINDS RAMP UP FRIDAY WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING CRITICAL/NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- MUCH COOLER STARTING THIS WEEKEND WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
TODAY WILL BE LAST DAY FOR A WHILE THAT WILL NOT SEE ANY TYPE OF
WEATHER OTHER THAN "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE" WEATHER. CHANGES START
ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAINLY WILL BE STRONGER WINDS. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ONE MORE
DAY, AND IN FACT TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A BIT WARMER IN SOME
SPOTS. GUSTS TOMORROW WILL REACH 25-35 MPH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 MPH. AT THE MOMENT, THAT WOULDN'T BE
PUSHING ANY WIND-RELATED HEADLINES OUTSIDE OF FIRE WEATHER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL VERSIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN LOW DROPS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA
BEFORE SWINGING EAST. THE SIGNAL IS STILL THERE THAT AHEAD OF
THAT, REMNANTS OF RACHEL ARE PULLED NORTH AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS 1-2" OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS,
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HIGHER RIDGELINES EAST OF I-15
ARE PUSHING 2.25-2.5". THERE IS SOME SPILLOVER INTO THE SNAKE
PLAIN OF 1.0-1.5" FROM POCATELLO UP THROUGH REXBURG. AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS ARE CERTAINLY PUSHING
THE HIGHEST END OF FORECAST AMOUNTS IN OUR BLEND OF MODELS BUT
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE SOME OF
THE "DRIER" VALLEY SPOTS ARE IN THE 0.10-0.30" RANGE. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE RACHEL
ACTUALLY REACHES, SO WE MAY SEE SOME WOBBLING BACK AND FORTH
UNTIL THE WEEKEND ON WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL. IT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 7000FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY
LIGHT, BUT COULD AMOUNT TO SEVERAL INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER TOWARD ISLAND PARK. WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE COULD SEE SNOWFLAKES
FALLING MUCH LOWER THAN THAT...BUT MAY NOT STICK. WE WILL LIKELY
END UP WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE ISSUES ON MORNINGS
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED OR IS MINIMAL. FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER LOW TRIES TO DROP INTO THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS WOULD KEEP COOLER AIR IN PLACE AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION GOING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
WE HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF "CALM WEATHER". WE DO EXPECT THE DRY AIR
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
THE ONLY CHANGE MAJOR CHANGE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE MAJOR SHIFT HAPPENING OVER THE WEEKEND. MANY AREAS
WILL SEE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 MPH OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE MIXED
FUELS CONDITIONS ACROSS ZONES 422/425/427, SO WE COULD SEE SOME
ISSUES WITH CRITICAL/NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE
WILL NEED TO DO SOME MORE CHECKING TO SEE IF CONTINUED DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS CREATED CHANGES IN FUELS CONDITIONS SINCE LAST
WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST WITH THE FIRST LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST. MOISTURE FROM RACHEL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IDAHO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONES 410, 411, AND 413. IN THESE
AREAS, AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER RIDGELINES
PUSHING 2.25-2.50". THIS IS PUSHING THE HIGHEST END OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE BLEND OF MODELS BUT SEEMS QUITE
REASONABLE SINCE WE ARE IMPACTED BY DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE FROM RACHEL IS PULLED
FARTHER WEST, BUT IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE CLOSED LOW AND
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. WE MAY INDEED SOME SOME WOBBLING WITH THE
FORECAST ON WHERE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FALL. ONCE YOU SHIFT BACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE STILL
PUSHING 0.40-0.80", AND 0.10-0.30" FOR "DRIER" VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE THE MONTANA BORDER TOWARD ISLAND
PARK. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND ISLAND PARK WHERE TOTALS COULD PUSH 6"
ABOVE 9,000FT. MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY COMING FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW IS TRYING TO DROP IN
BEHIND THE FIRST STORM, WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR
SURE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...13/KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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