107
FXUS65 KPIH 100440
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1040 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT (SATURDAY–MONDAY): A FLOOD WATCH COVERS
MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO—INCLUDING SUN VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY, SNAKE PLAIN, AND EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS—FOR A MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT OF 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES,
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 3.0 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR ISLAND
PARK AND INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS AN 80%
TO 100% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTH HILLS, WITH A
30% TO 80% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES.
- DRAMATIC WEEKEND COOLDOWN: TODAY'S UPPER 70S AND 80S MARK THE
FINAL WARM DAY OF THE SEASON. HIGHS DROP BELOW 70 ON SATURDAY
AND PLUMMET INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY.
- FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AHEAD: WIDESPREAD COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING FROST/FREEZE RISKS STARTING SUNDAY MORNING,
BECOMING MORE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE HEADLINES
ARE SUSPENDED FOR THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT GETS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY INTO
THE 70S AND 80S, MARKING THE FINAL DAY OF 80-DEGREE WARMTH FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SATURDAY REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COOLER, WETTER AIR MASS, WITH LOWER-ELEVATION MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
ELEVATING LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES AND INITIATING A MULTI-DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST AND MOST IMPACTFUL DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF EASTERN
IDAHO, EXTENDING FROM SUN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAGIC
VALLEY, SNAKE PLAIN, AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES ARE VERY LIKELY
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY. NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM)
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM TOTALS EXCEEDING 1.0 INCH REACH 80% TO
100% ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SOUTH
HILLS, WITH 2.0-INCH PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM 30% TO 80%. THE
HIGHEST QPF FOOTPRINT IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
AND TOWARD ISLAND PARK, WHERE LOCALIZED 3.0-INCH TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE. WHILE PERSISTENT LIGHT-TO-MODERATE RAIN IS THE PRIMARY
DRIVER, EMBEDDED SATURDAY/SUNDAY CONVECTION COULD BOOST
LOCALIZED TOTALS AND CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S.
AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL WANE COMPARED TO SUNDAY, WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY DRYING OUT BY MID-WEEK. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE REGION, HOLDING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY TOWARD THE
LOWER 60S POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. WITH COLD AIR ESTABLISHED
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO OVERNIGHT
FREEZE RISKS. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS SKIES CLEAR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
CHILLY NIGHTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE SEASONAL SUSPENSION OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR EASTERN IDAHO AT SOME POINT MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING. WIND HAS DROPPED OFF
CURRENTLY AS WELL. LOOK FOR A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK AHEAD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT ALL
PRECIPITATION AS VCSH SATURDAY UNTIL CAN DETERMINE TIMING ON
RAIN SHOWERS. THE INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING
BY THAT POINT. SUN LOOKS TO STAY THE DRIEST ON SATURDAY, BUT
SHOULD JOIN IN ON THE ACTION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THAT BECOMES LESS LIKELY AS CLOUDS LOWER AND
RAINFALL INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING MOST SITES, EXCEPT SUN AND MAYBE BYI, STARTING TO DROP
TO MVFR BETWEEN 3 TO 6Z ON SATURDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE THAN JUST VCSH SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ALL SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM, RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS STARTED TO RISE.
ALMOST ALL SITES ARE ABOVE CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
CURRENTLY. THUS, WILL LET RED FLAG FOR FIRE ZONE 427 TO EXPIRE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING AND,
ESPECIALLY, TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM RACHEL BEGIN TO PUSH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
ONSET OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
HEAVIEST DAY FOR MOST AREAS. OVERALL TOTALS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE 0.35-0.50" FOR ZONES 475 AND 476,
0.50-1.50" FOR MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD TOTALS
FOR THE 3 DAY PERIOD ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS, ZONES 427, 413, AND 411, WHERE SOME LOCATIONS WILL
EXCEED 2" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR REGIONS EXPECTED TO
SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO EAST IDAHO ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL, WHICH MEANS
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BRIEFLY DIPPING TO
MID-SLOPES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST AFFECTS WILL BE ABOVE 7500-8000 FT
ELEVATIONS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR IDZ051>067-073-075.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...DMH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page