186
FXUS65 KPIH 110629
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1229 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.5" AND LOCALLY HIGHER OUTSIDE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
- FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO
ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN AREAS AND BURN SCARS
- HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THE "DRIER" SPOTS STILL APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE LAVA
BEDS NORTH THROUGH THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY AND STANLEY BASIN, AS
WELL AS NORTH TOWARD CHALLIS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.30-0.60"
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 0.75-1.5" OF PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME
SPOTS PUSHING 2" ALONG AND EAST OF I-15. THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(HIGH END) OF THE RANGE IN THE BLEND OF MODELS HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1.25-2.25", AND THE ABSOLUTE HIGHEST IS STILL GOING WITH
ANOTHER 1.5-3.0", PUSHING 3.5"+ ALONG AND EAST OF I-15 IN A FEW
SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO STILL LOOKING AT SOME SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE STANLEY AND COPPER BASINS, SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 7500-8000FT. WE MIGHT EVEN SEE UP TO 6"
ACROSS HIGHEST PEAKS AND RANGES (ABOVE 9500-10000FT). THE BLEND
IS TRYING TO SNEAK SOME LIGHT SNOW AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTH HILLS AND ALBION MOUNTAINS. THAT SEEMS TO BE A FUNCTION OF
A POCKET OF COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THAT
PARTICULAR AREA. IF WE DO SEE ACCUMULATIONS THERE, IT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
ENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS THE LOW SLOWS TO ALMOST A
CRAWL AS IT SWINGS ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD, AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE MODELS (ENSEMBLES AND AI VERSION AS WELL)
DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA NEXT WEEK
AS PART OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ACTUALLY TO
STOP THE LOW OVER COLORADO, AND SHOW IT RETROGRADING WEST BACK
ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA. THAT SEEMS TO BE AN ODD OUTLIER FOR
SURE. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE 60S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE OVER IDA
AND DIJ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY
VCSH FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT STRONG WAVE OF
MOISTURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE PUSHED
THIS WAVE OF MOISTURE OFF UNTIL 11 TO 12Z FOR PIH, BYI, AND DIJ
AND AROUND 14Z FOR IDA. SUN LOOKS TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON NOW. BYI HAS THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW EARLY IN THE
MORNING BUT IS BARELY IN THE PRECIPITATION BAND NOW.
PRECIPITATION COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR BYI. CIGS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH THE WAVE OF MOISTURE
AND CONTINUE ALL DAY SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIS TO DROP
THAT LOW AS WELL. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS ON STATION AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR DIJ, IDA, AND PIH.
DIJ LOOKS TO HAVE HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING. PIH AND IDA LOOK TO HAVE HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. HAVE PUT IN PROB30 GROUPS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMES
FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AT EACH TAF LOCATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
THAT LIKELY, LESS THAN 5%. SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. THE "DRIER" SPOTS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
LAVA BEDS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY, NORTH ACROSS ZONE 422, AND THEN
BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THERE ARE IN THE 0.30-0.60" RANGE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.5"
ARE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG/EAST OF I-15
TRYING TO PUSH 2.0". THE 90TH PERCENTILE (HIGHER END) OF THE
RANGE IN THE BLEND OF MODELS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.25-2.25",
AND THE ABSOLUTE HIGHEST IS STILL GOING WITH ANOTHER 1.5-3.0",
PUSHING 3.5"+ ALONG AND EAST OF I-15 IN A FEW SPOTS. SNOW IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
MONTANA BORDER. WHILE WE MIGHT SEE SOME BRIEF AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE STANLEY BASIN, MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ABOVE 7500-8000FT AND HIGHEST ABOVE 9500-10000FT. A POCKET OF
COLDER AIR AROUND THE SOUTH HILLS AND ALBION MOUNTAINS MAY HELP
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW, AS IT DROPS
INTO UTAH, WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER IDAHO LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT ONLY EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IDZ051>067-073-075.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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