937
FXUS65 KPIH 111728
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1128 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.5" AND LOCALLY HIGHER OUTSIDE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
- FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO
ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN AREAS AND BURN SCARS
- HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THE "DRIER" SPOTS STILL APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE LAVA
BEDS NORTH THROUGH THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY AND STANLEY BASIN, AS
WELL AS NORTH TOWARD CHALLIS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.30-0.60"
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 0.75-1.5" OF PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME
SPOTS PUSHING 2" ALONG AND EAST OF I-15. THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(HIGH END) OF THE RANGE IN THE BLEND OF MODELS HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1.25-2.25", AND THE ABSOLUTE HIGHEST IS STILL GOING WITH
ANOTHER 1.5-3.0", PUSHING 3.5"+ ALONG AND EAST OF I-15 IN A FEW
SPOTS. WE ARE ALSO STILL LOOKING AT SOME SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE STANLEY AND COPPER BASINS, SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 7500-8000FT. WE MIGHT EVEN SEE UP TO 6"
ACROSS HIGHEST PEAKS AND RANGES (ABOVE 9500-10000FT). THE BLEND
IS TRYING TO SNEAK SOME LIGHT SNOW AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTH HILLS AND ALBION MOUNTAINS. THAT SEEMS TO BE A FUNCTION OF
A POCKET OF COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THAT
PARTICULAR AREA. IF WE DO SEE ACCUMULATIONS THERE, IT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
ENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS THE LOW SLOWS TO ALMOST A
CRAWL AS IT SWINGS ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD, AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE MODELS (ENSEMBLES AND AI VERSION AS WELL)
DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA NEXT WEEK
AS PART OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ACTUALLY TO
STOP THE LOW OVER COLORADO, AND SHOW IT RETROGRADING WEST BACK
ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA. THAT SEEMS TO BE AN ODD OUTLIER FOR
SURE. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE 60S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS UNDER THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IN PLACE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH MVFR VIS AND CIGS.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF BREAK
EXPECTED MOST TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. IF SOME CLEARING
CAN BE REALIZED, THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. SHRA REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT. SUN MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN DOWNVALLEY AND UPVALLEY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THIS SYSTEM, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. THE "DRIER" SPOTS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
LAVA BEDS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY, NORTH ACROSS ZONE 422, AND THEN
BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THERE ARE IN THE 0.30-0.60" RANGE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.5"
ARE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG/EAST OF I-15
TRYING TO PUSH 2.0". THE 90TH PERCENTILE (HIGHER END) OF THE
RANGE IN THE BLEND OF MODELS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.25-2.25",
AND THE ABSOLUTE HIGHEST IS STILL GOING WITH ANOTHER 1.5-3.0",
PUSHING 3.5"+ ALONG AND EAST OF I-15 IN A FEW SPOTS. SNOW IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
MONTANA BORDER. WHILE WE MIGHT SEE SOME BRIEF AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE STANLEY BASIN, MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ABOVE 7500-8000FT AND HIGHEST ABOVE 9500-10000FT. A POCKET OF
COLDER AIR AROUND THE SOUTH HILLS AND ALBION MOUNTAINS MAY HELP
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW, AS IT DROPS
INTO UTAH, WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER IDAHO LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT ONLY EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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