066
FXUS65 KPIH 111907
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
107 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON: TODAY IS THE MAIN EVENT
FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH 1 INCH OR MORE EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. LOCALIZED TOTALS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND AROUND ISLAND PARK. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM NEVADA AND UTAH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- RAW & CHILLY THROUGH TUESDAY: A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP DENSE CLOUD COVER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
LOCKED OVER EASTERN IDAHO, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
40S AND 50S.
- LATE WEEK RIDGE & PLEASANT NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLE:
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT BY MID-WEEK AS THE LOW DEPARTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SETTING
UP A MUCH MORE PLEASANT NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN A WET, RAW DAY ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING IN THE 40S
AND LOW 50S. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH, FUELED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
RACHEL. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH COOLER AIR
FILTERING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TODAY SERVES AS THE MAIN EVENT FOR PRECIPITATION. AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-15 CORRIDOR. LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD CERTAINLY SEE 2 TO 3
INCHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND AROUND ISLAND PARK. ACCORDINGLY, A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH-RESOLUTION
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) INDICATE A POTENTIAL BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE AREA OUT OF NEVADA AND UTAH OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT IS A BIT
TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP IN PLACE. NEVERTHELESS, A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MAGIC VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE LAVA BEDS AND INTO THE ARCO DESERT AS THESE ZONES LIKELY
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING,
BRIEFLY. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPS OF 32-36 EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME RURAL SPOTS WITHIN THESE ZONES DROP TO NEAR,
OR BELOW FREEZING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP FORECAST TO BE AROUND. EITHER WAY, MANY NIGHTS
AHEAD WITH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY A
SUSPENSION OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE YEAR LATER THIS WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BETWEEN
NOW AND MID-WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL KEEP DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. FOLLOWING MONDAY MORNING'S MOISTURE SURGE, THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM NEVADA INTO UTAH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
SEASONALLY CHILLY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
50S.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WHILE THE
ECMWF (EURO) CONTINUES TO HINT AT RETROGRADING THE LOW BACK INTO
UTAH, THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGEST THIS IS AN
OUTLIER SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATELY
HIGH THAT RIDGING WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE
WORKWEEK. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES, BRINGING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THIS WEEK'S RAW WEATHER,
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IN PLACE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH MVFR VIS AND CIGS.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF BREAK
EXPECTED MOST TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. IF SOME CLEARING
CAN BE REALIZED, THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. SHRA REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT. SUN MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN DOWNVALLEY AND UPVALLEY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THIS SYSTEM, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST IDAHO, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS. LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO EXIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.70-1.50" ARE
STILL FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH/EAST. FURTHER WEST, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGE
0.15-0.60". IF THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SEEN IN THE MODELS CAN
BE REALIZED, ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OVER 2.5" ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LIGHT FALLING SNOW
POSSIBLE TO MID-SLOPE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. UPPER LOW FINALLY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ALLOWING DRIER
AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IDZ051>067-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ051-052-055.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ053-054.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...DMH
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