082
FXUS66 KPQR 181231
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
430 AM PST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WET AND WINDY FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WEATHER REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE PACIFIC AND NEAR
THE COAST. RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH INLAND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PEAKED AROUND 50-70 MPH AT THE COAST. IN FACT,
THE ASTORIA MEGLER BRIDGE (350 FT ELEVATION) SAW A WIND GUST OF 80
MPH AROUND 1 AM THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF FALLEN TREES ALONG
THE NORTH OREGON COAST, AS WELL AS OVER 15,000 POWER OUTAGES BEING
REPORTED BY PACIFIC POWER FROM CANNON BEACH TO ASTORIA AS OF 3 AM.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND, EXPECT BRIEF, STRONG GUSTS UP TO 40-50
MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS PUSHING INTO THE
CASCADES WHILE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 8 AM AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE QUICK SHOT OF
RAIN WILL KEEP THE GRAYS RIVER ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
CLIP THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE THURSDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY STAY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH THE MAJORITY
OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING INLAND LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. DH/CB
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO PUSH BACK INLAND. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO STAY RELATIVELY HIGH AROUND 5000-6000 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE RISING AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE SYSTEMS, THOUGH
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BRING DECENT ROUNDS OF RAIN
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AND BEYOND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY WIND STORMS DEVELOPING. /DH
AVIATION
CURRENTLY AS OF 11Z WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS INLAND
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE AIRSPACE, CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN,
ELEVATED WINDS, AND DETERIORATED CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND
RECENTLY REACHING INLAND. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORM OF
SPEED SHEAR IS LIKELY UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY. FOR TERMINALS NEAR OR ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER, COULD SEE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. SOUTH
WINDS CAN GUST UP TO 35-40 KTS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, WITH
SIMILAR STRENGTH SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY AND WEAKEN TO 8-12 KT BY 16-18Z WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH RAIN SCOURING OUT AND CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY IMPROVED
TO VFR (70-80% CHANCE OF VFR). ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BEGINNING WITH BRINGING RAIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO KONP BY 06Z THURSDAY.
PDX AND APPROACHES...FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BRINGS RAIN
AND LOW-END VFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE
FORM OF SPEED SHEAR UNTIL WED 15Z. COULD SEE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CONSIDERING SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL 15-16Z WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING LIGHT AND WESTERLY THEREAFTER.
~HALL
MARINE
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EACH SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING AROUND
A 50-70% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATER. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS SOME MODELS GIVE A 30-40% CHANCE AND
OTHERS A 70-80% CHANCE. MORE SYSTEMS ARE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
GALES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (50-60% PROBABILITY) WITH STORM FORCE
(40-50% PROBABILITY) SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 20 FT BY
SATURDAY (40-50% CHANCE TO EXCEED 20 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS) AND
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 21-24 FT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY (30-50%
CHANCE TO EXCEED 21 FT ON SUNDAY AND 24 FT ON MONDAY). ~HALL
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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