139
FXUS66 KPQR 181723 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PST WED DEC 18 2024
..UPDATED PUBLIC AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS
SYNOPSIS
A WET AND WINDY FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WEATHER REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE PACIFIC AND NEAR
THE COAST. RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH INLAND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
PEAKED AROUND 50-70 MPH AT THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. IN FACT,
THE ASTORIA MEGLER BRIDGE (350 FT ELEVATION) SAW A WIND GUST OF 80
MPH AROUND 1 AM THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF FALLEN TREES ALONG
THE NORTH OREGON COAST, AS WELL AS OVER 15,000 POWER OUTAGES BEING
REPORTED BY PACIFIC POWER FROM CANNON BEACH TO ASTORIA AS OF 3 AM.
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES, DRY WEATHER HAS
RETURNED ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM IS NOW EXITING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GRAYS
RIVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, BUT HAS
CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
CLIP THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE THURSDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY STAY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH THE MAJORITY
OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING INLAND LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. -ALVIZ/DH
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO PUSH BACK INLAND. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO STAY RELATIVELY HIGH AROUND 5000-6000 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE RISING AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE SYSTEMS, THOUGH
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BRING DECENT ROUNDS OF RAIN
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AND BEYOND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY WIND STORMS DEVELOPING. /DH
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO LINGER. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 06Z TO 10Z THURSDAY AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CLEARING AND MINIMAL WIND, THERE IS AROUND A 60%-70% PROBABILITY FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
(KEUG) AROUND 16Z THURSDAY. WHILE THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
(KSLE) ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT, UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AND RESULT IN A 20% PROBABILITY FOR IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT.
PDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 10Z THURSDAY WILL BRING RAIN (75% PROBABILITY) AND
CIGS AROUND FL040 (25% PROBABILITY). /42
MARINE
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EACH SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING AROUND A 50-70%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATER. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS SOME MODELS GIVE A 30-40% CHANCE AND OTHERS A 70-80%
CHANCE. MORE SYSTEMS ARE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
GALES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (50-60% PROBABILITY) WITH STORM FORCE (40-
50% PROBABILITY) SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 20 FT BY SATURDAY
(40-50% CHANCE TO EXCEED 20 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS) AND WILL LIKELY
TOP OUT AROUND 21-24 FT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY (30-50% CHANCE TO EXCEED 21
FT ON SUNDAY AND 24 FT ON MONDAY). ~HALL
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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