643
FXUS66 KPQR 160603 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1003 PM PST SAT FEB 15 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM RETURNS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
CASCADE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
EXPECTED FOR THE CASCADE PASSES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM
SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MID-WEEK.
LIKELY DRIER AND TRENDING WARMER LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NOW THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS NW OREGON IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SNOW
LEVELS UP TO 4000-5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, EXCEPT
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NEAR EUGENE AND ALONG THE COAST FROM
TILLAMOOK SOUTHWARD. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW
40 DEGREES, EXCEPT IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND THE HIGH
CASCADES. PRECIPITATION INCREASES TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG, SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL JET
PUSHING INTO WESTERN OREGON. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 3500-4000 FT. ANOTHER
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ONE
MORE ROUND OF ENHANCED PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE TOTAL 48-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES, HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER END
AMOUNTS INLAND. HIGHER TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS BELOW 3500 FT ARE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE 48-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING A RISE IN LOCAL RIVERS, BUT HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW AS THERE IS LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION STAGE.
ABOVE 3500 FT, HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. THIS INCLUDES THE CASCADE
PASSES WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 FEET IN THE CASCADES, WITH A 5-10% CHANCE OF 2 FEET OR MORE AT
PASS-LEVEL. THOSE TRAVELING THROUGH THE CASCADES SHOULD PREPARE FOR
WINTER WEATHER AND REFER TO ODOT/WSDOT FOR THE LATEST ROAD
CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTIONS.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, EAST OF CASCADE LOCKS, AND
THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S, ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN WINTRY PRECIP OCCURRING, LIKELY STARTING OUT AS
SNOW, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING,
AND THEN TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE
LATEST HREF INDICATES A 60-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW,
AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.10 INCH OF ICE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND UP TO A TENTH
INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FT. THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL GORGE,
INCLUDING I-84, AS TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOVER AROUND 32-33 DEGREES.
WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW FALL, BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ALSO BECOME BREEZY THIS EVENING, BUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT
LIVED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 35-
45 MPH BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT, WHILE EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH. /DH
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE PACIFIC NW BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST
RANGE. TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM WITH LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ONLY DROPPING TO THE 40S WITH MORNING FOG.
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
BRINGS ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING THE LOWLANDS, BUT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME ON SNOW PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS. SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO
RETURN OVER THE CASCADES. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS DETAILS
CHANGE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
AS WELL WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEING SHOWN THE
THE CLUSTERS. MOST CLUSTERS KEEP THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
AROUND A 20% CHANCE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS MORE RAIN
ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. IF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS WIN OUT,
THEN MORE LIKELY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER, POTENTIALLY INTO THE MID 50S. /DH
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN TO THE AIRSPACE. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
MIX OF CIGS FROM LOW VFR TO IFR AND SOME SUB-VFR VIS. MESSY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY AS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE. PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY LET UP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO
PICK BACK UP AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN S/SW WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST TO 25 KT AND IN
THE EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO UP TO 30 KT.
PDX AND APPROACHES...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION,
SUPPORTING A MIX OF LOW VFR CONDITIONS (TTD DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS)
TO MVFR/IFR FOR THE REST OF THE SITES. EXPECTING SUB-VFR FOR ALL
CONDITIONS AS PRECIP INCREASES AND WINDS AT TTD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE SUN
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES
ONSHORE AND SUPPORTS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. -BATZ
MARINE
AT 2:30 PM SATURDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING
TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SEAS AROUND 7 TO 8 FT AT 12 TO
15 SECONDS WITH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT SATURDAY EVENING OVER
THE OUTER WATERS AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE INNER WATERS. BRIEF
AND ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ALL MARINE ZONES, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. HOWEVER,
WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
OR PROLONGED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING.
THEREFORE, A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING 13-15 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING A BIT ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, EXPECT THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH BRIEF AND
ISOLATED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. -TK
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ121.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ126>128.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR WAZ211.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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