120
FXUS66 KPQR 161813 AAB
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1012 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CASCADE
SNOW TODAY AND MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MID-WEEK. LIKELY DRIER AND TRENDING
WARMER LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TODAY AND MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE INCREASED TO 4500-5500 FT AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE ONE EXCEPTION, WITH CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AT
1000-1500 FT INCREASING TOWARDS 3000-3500 FT BY LATE THIS
MORNING. WITH A DELAY IN INCREASING SNOW LEVELS FOR THE UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY, LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BY
THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW LEVELS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL BE AROUND 3500-4000 FT AND REMAIN SO UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
TODAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST AND WITHIN THE VALLEYS. THE COLUMBIA GORGE, UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ANOTHER
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND THEN MORE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. TO
SUMMARIZE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES, EXPECT 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH WITHIN THE VALLEY AND 0.75
TO 1.25 INCH ALONG THE COAST FROM 4 AM TODAY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY
(36 HOUR TOTAL). HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS, WILLAPA HILLS, AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE A RISE IN RIVERS, BUT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
ABOVE 3500 FT, HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR THE
CASCADE PASSES, EXPECT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET,
WITH A 5-10% CHANCE TO EXCEED 2 FEET. WITH THESE FORECASTED
AMOUNTS, THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINTAINED.
THERE IS ALSO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 1 PM TODAY. LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 70-80% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW AND
A 50-60% CHANCE TO EXCEED 2 INCHES. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS CHANCES FOR 0.10 INCH OF ICE FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY ARE AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR AREAS BELOW 1500 FT AND A
50-60% CHANCE FOR AREAS ABOVE 1500 FT. WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW AND UP TO A TENTH INCH OF ICE FORECASTED FOR THE UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL GORGE, INCLUDING I-84, AS
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY HOVER AROUND 32-33 DEGREES. SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE (AROUND A 30% CHANCE TO RECEIVE 0.1 INCH OF SNOW), BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THOSE TRAVELING
THROUGH THE CASCADES SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND REFER
TO ODOT/WSDOT FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTIONS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE PACIFIC NW BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST
RANGE. TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM WITH LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ONLY DROPPING TO THE 40S WITH MORNING FOG.
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
BRINGS ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING THE LOWLANDS, BUT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO RETURN OVER THE
CASCADES. WHILE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTED SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME, NBM SUGGESTS A 10-20% CHANCE TO RECEIVE
1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND A
10-20% CHANCE TO RECEIVE 6 INCHES OR MORE AT CASCADE PASSES.
THESE CURRENT LOW PROBABILITIES SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, BUT KEEP AN EYE
ON THE FORECAST AS DETAILS CHANGE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
AS WELL WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEING SHOWN THE
THE CLUSTERS. MOST CLUSTERS KEEP THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
AROUND A 20% CHANCE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS MORE RAIN
ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. IF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS WIN OUT,
THEN MORE LIKELY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER, POTENTIALLY INTO THE MID 50S. /DH
AVIATION
SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 18Z
SUNDAY DEPICTED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND VIS ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KONP WHERE LIFR CIGS
ARE CONTINUING TO BE OBSERVED, ALBEIT CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR
AT KONP SOMETIME BETWEEN 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. WE'LL BE SHOWERY THIS
MORNING, BUT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ALONG THE
COAST. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO, WHERE
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY
AFTER BY 21Z SUN.
PDX AND APPROACHES...FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT LOW-END MVFR CIGS.
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH-END IFR THRESHOLDS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 21Z SUNDAY.
-TK
MARINE
THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE WATERS, BUT
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY SEAS REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY AT 12-13 FT AT 9
SECONDS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WATERS WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE PACIFIC
TODAY, SO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. NOTE THAT THERE IS ALSO A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY WHICH MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TODAY TO AROUND 10-11 FT AT 13 SECONDS; HOWEVER,
AN INCOMING WESTERLY SWELL WILL RE-BUILD SEAS TO 12-14 FT AT 15
SECONDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, EXPECT THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE. -ALVIZ/TK
BEACH HAZARDS
A WESTERLY SWELL OF 12-14 FT AT 15 SECONDS WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SNEAKER
WAVES ALONG ALL COASTAL BEACHES. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IS ALSO WHEN A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. BEACHGOERS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT
FOR WAVES OCCASIONALLY RUNNING UP MUCH FARTHER ONTO THE BEACH
THAN BACKGROUND WAVE CONDITIONS. STAY OFF OF ROCKS, JETTIES AND
LOGS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. -42/ALVIZ
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ORZ121.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ126>128.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR WAZ211.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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