683
FXUS66 KPQR 162304
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
304 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
CASCADE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED FOR THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MILDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIKELY TRENDING DRIER AND
WARMER LATER THIS WEEK, BUT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OFFSHORE NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND. MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE CASCADES ABOVE 3500
FEET. CURRENTLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND PASS LEVEL
(BETWEEN 4000-5000 FT) WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32-34 DEGREES. WEB
CAMS SHOW MOSTLY BARE OR SLUSHY ROADS AT CASCADE PASSES, BUT THAT
SHOULD CHANGE AS TEMPERATURES COOL LATER TODAY AND SNOW LEVELS FALL
TO 3500 FT OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW TO
FALL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HREF SUGGESTING RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER
HOUR DURING THIS PERIOD, WHILE NBM GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A 70-80%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 12 INCHES OF SNOW AT PASS LEVEL THROUGH 4PM
MONDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.
THOSE TRAVELING THROUGH THE CASCADES SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTER
WEATHER AND REFER TO ODOT/WSDOT FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND
RESTRICTIONS.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT THE GLOOMY, RAINY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH DISSIPATING SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE
SEEN UP TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
OVER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 24-HOURS WITH AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH RIVERS
ARE ON THE RISE, THERE ARE STILL NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA,
WILL LIKELY SEE LOW STRATUS OR FOG SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, PUSHING SNOW LEVELS BACK UP OVER 4000
TO 6000 FT. RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL ALSO MENTION THERE IS AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET RETURNING TO THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO AROUND 30-
34 DEG. THE NBM SUGGESTS THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW THERE.
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER LOW SPINNING UP NEAR THE COAST LINE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T SUGGEST THE LOW DEEPENS MUCH
(990 TO 995 MB), THERE IS AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER MILD, RAINY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER CASCADE SNOW THROUGH WED EVENING. /DH
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATER THIS WEEK OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. MOST CLUSTERS KEEP THE AREA DRY MUCH OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE THAT A
FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH RAIN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS MORE RAIN TO THE PACIFIC NW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, WITH POTENTIAL PWAT AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH AS
INDICATED BY THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE, THOUGH DETAILS OF WHERE THE BAND
OF HEAVIER MOISTURE SETS UP IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. /DH
AVIATION
SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 2230Z
SUNDAY DEPICTED WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A MIXED BAG OF IFR,
MVFR AND VFR CIGS. THAT BEING SAID, MVFR CIGS WERE MOST PREVALENT
INLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS, ASIDE FROM BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE STEADY/STRATIFORM
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SHOWERY AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
IT NOW APPEARS GUSTY EAST WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE AT KTTD
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 05Z MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY
THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT, EXCEPT AT KONP WHERE WINDS ARE CLOSER TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. -TK
PDX AND APPROACHES...FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT LOW-END MVFR CIGS, ASIDE
FROM BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CIGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH-END IFR THRESHOLDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 05Z MONDAY. -TK
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH GUSTS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 20 KT BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THAT TIME DUE TO AN
INCOMING WESTERLY SWELL. EXPECT SEAS AROUND 10 FT AT 10 TO 12
SECONDS ON SUNDAY, BECOMING 12 TO 14 FT AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A BRIEF
LULL IN WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
SEAS FALLING TO AROUND 10 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED A BIT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, WITH FORECAST WIND GUSTS NOW UP
TO 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 35 KT OVER THE INNER
WATERS. THE PROBABILITY FOR MAX WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KT RANGES
BETWEEN 70-90%, HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THESE HIGH
PROBABILITIES AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE, A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES UNLESS FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
TREND DOWNWARD. -TK
BEACH HAZARDS
A WESTERLY SWELL OF 12-14 FT AT 15 SECONDS WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SNEAKER
WAVES ALONG ALL COASTAL BEACHES. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IS ALSO WHEN A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. BEACHGOERS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT
FOR WAVES OCCASIONALLY RUNNING UP MUCH FARTHER ONTO THE BEACH
THAN BACKGROUND WAVE CONDITIONS. STAY OFF OF ROCKS, JETTIES AND
LOGS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. -TK
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ126>128.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR WAZ211.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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