475
FXUS66 KPQR 191643 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 AM PST WED FEB 19 2025
UPDATED HAZARDS.
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY WINDS LIKELY TODAY, HIGHEST IN
THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND UP TO 40
MPH INLAND. SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
PASS LEVEL. THEN, TRENDING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. LATER SATURDAY, POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MODERATE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NW.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH IN THE
VALLEY LOWLANDS, 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH ALONG THE COAST, AND 1.00 TO
1.25 INCH IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50% CHANCE TO EXCEED 0.50
INCH FOR THE VALLEY LOWLANDS, A 40-50% CHANCE TO EXCEED 0.75
INCH ALONG THE COAST, AND 30-50% CHANCE TO EXCEED 1.25 INCH IN
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
SNOW RETURNS TO THE CASCADES, WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (HEAVIEST
DURING LATE WEDNESDAY). GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER IN
PROBABILITIES, WITH NBM SUGGESTING A 20-40% CHANCE TO EXCEED 4
INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND HREF SUGGESTING A 40-60% CHANCE TO EXCEED
6 INCHES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE GUIDANCE
PROBABILITIES HAVE LOWERED, THE EXPECTED RANGE OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL LIKELY BE IMPACTFUL TO CASCADE PASSES.
AS A RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE CASCADES, WHICH IS CURRENTLY SET TO END ON 4 AM
THURSDAY.
THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY (ABOVE 1000 FT) HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION UP TO 0.10 INCHES THIS MORNING,
BUT HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CURRENT GUIDANCE
GIVES RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITIES IN FREEZING RAIN.
SPECIFICALLY, THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION UP TO 0.10 INCH THIS MORNING AROUND THE PARKDALE
AREA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
LATEST MODEL UPDATES THIS MORNING.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 30 MPH BY TONIGHT.
INLAND LOCATIONS (GENERALLY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY) WILL ALSO
SEE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS, HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL SEE
EASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND DECREASE INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TO GIVE SOME CONTEXT, THESE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS IN
THE GORGE ARE SUPPORTED BY A -5 TO -6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE SUPPORTED BY A PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
-5 TO -6 MB FROM PORTLAND TO EUGENE. -HALL
LONG TERM...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY. BUT WITH CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM INTO
THE LOWER 50S. MOST CLUSTERS KEEP THE AREA DRY ON FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AROUND A 40% CHANCE THAT A FRONT IS ABLE TO
PUSH RAIN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TURNS TO HEAVIER RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE AND STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER,
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE GEFS AND THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS MEAN PWAT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1.1-1.2
INCH NOW. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER
MOISTURE SETS UP. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF IVT VALUES > 500 KG/M/S
(OF AROUND 70-90%) HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, ACCORDING
TO THE CW3E IVT LANDFALL TOOL, TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OREGON COAST. ALTHOUGH LATEST HEFS FORECASTS SHOW A
5-15% CHANCE OF LOCAL TRIBUTARY RIVERS REACHING MINOR FLOOD
STAGE, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FLASHIER RIVERS AS WE GET CLOSER
TO SUNDAY.-DH
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION AROUND
15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A LLWS THREAT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ALOFT WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN E/SE.
RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY TO
02Z THURSDAY ALONG WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING BACK
TOWARDS VFR.
PDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
AROUND 17Z WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARDS, RAIN WILL CONTINUE, BUT EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH LLWS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. AROUND 00Z THURSDAY EXPECT MORE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TOWARDS VFR. -42
MARINE
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS.
THEREFORE, HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT SUITE OF GALE WARNINGS
ACROSS ALL WATERS. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. SO, HAVE SHORTENED
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER WATERS AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TOWARDS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
TO 14 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TOWARDS 9
TO 11 FT BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY (45-60% PROBABILITY) OF SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS 12 TO
14 FT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND
STRENGTH, BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH GALES AND SEA
HEIGHTS AT THIS TIME. -42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ126>128.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR WAZ211.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ251>253.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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