563
FXUS66 KPQR 271031
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
COOL, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRIEF BREAK IS
EXPECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN AND LIGHT CASCADE SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
TODAY IS LOOKING TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. COOL, NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS WILL BRING
A VERY "SPRING LIKE" FEEL ACROSS THE CWA. THE CAUSE OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE LOW, WHICH WAS
THE CAUSE FOR ALL THE "EXCITEMENT" YESTERDAY. THIS LOW WILL
FINALLY STOP BEING THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, IT WILL SEND A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE REGION INUNDATED WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE IS ON DECK COME LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS, WILL GO INTO THIS MORE IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
NOW, DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INLAND, WITH THE COAST, COAST RANGE AND CASCADES REMAINING IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WILL BE COOLER AS THE BACK IN OF
THE LOW WILL USHER IN COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C TO
0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS COOLING OFF BY ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME, DAILY HIGH RECORDS ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SO, NO CURRENT CONCERN FOR ANY
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN
NATURE AND WHILE CAMS (CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS) ARE SHOWING
CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-250 J/KG. CIN VALUES AROUND 8-12 J/KG IS
TYPICALLY ENOUGH TO QUELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10-20% PROBABILITY)
IN THE FORECAST. THE REASON FOR KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IS THAT THE FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN AND INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME POP-CORN THUNDERSTORMS TO MANIFEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE CASCADES AND
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD, SOUTHERLY GUSTS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
OF STRONG WINDS HAS DECREASED. WITH ONLY A 10-30% PROBABILITY
FOR OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR AREAS FROM
SALEM SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY. THE COAST HAS A 20-30%
PROBABILITY FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. /42
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE IS ON DECK COME LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE VERY
SHORT-LIVED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND NE PACIFIC WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRING
SHOWERS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, EXPECT RAIN
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. /42
AVIATION
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE PACNW
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
18-21Z THURSDAY WITH AN ARRIVING FRONT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER RAIN. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
25 KT AT INLAND SITES AND 35-40 KT ALONG THE COAST.
PDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS PERSIST WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS ABOVE
FL040. STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT 18-20Z
THURSDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND
20-25 KT AT TIMES. -HEC
MARINE
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN AROUND
5-8 AM IN THIS AREA, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT EXPECTED. A STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND 5-8 AM. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE TODAY, BECOMING
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS MOST LIKELY
PEAKING BETWEEN 20-25 FEET LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAZARDOUS SEAS 15-20 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WIND GUSTS BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 7-10 FEET AT 10-12
SECONDS. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ONCE AGAIN. -HEC
BEACH HAZARDS
BEACHGOERS AND THOSE PARTICIPATING IN THE
UPCOMING RAZOR CLAM DIGS SHOULD BE AWARE OF A MODERATE RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES MOST OF THIS WEEK. BE SURE TO NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
TO THE OCEAN AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON INCOMING WAVES, AS SNEAKER
WAVES CAN CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE, SOMETIMES RESULTING IN
INJURY OR DEATH. AVOID JETTIES, LARGE LOGS, AND LARGE ROCKS.
ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 25 FT, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE
SURF ENERGY WILL BE DIRECTED ALONG-SHORE GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIMIT SURF IMPACTS TO AREA BEACHES.
FORECAST SURF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE
OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
LASTLY, THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING
ALONG THE SOUTH WA COAST AROUND HIGH TIDE FRIDAY MORNING. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, THE TOTAL TIDE FORECAST AT TOKE POINT, WA IS FORECAST
TO REACH 11.0 FEET FOR ONE HOUR. TYPICALLY, FLOODING IMPACTS DO
NOT OCCUR UNLESS THE TOTAL TIDE EXCEEDS 11 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY,
BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TOTAL TIDE FORECAST INCREASES WITH
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. -TK/HEC
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ210-251-271.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ252-253.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ272-273.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ272-273.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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