493
FXUS66 KPQR 272242
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
342 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
COOL, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRIEF BREAK IS
EXPECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN AND LIGHT CASCADE SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AROUND 10-20% CHANCE. WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY (HIGH AROUND 60 TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COLUMBIA
LOWLANDS), AS WELL AS MUCH WEAKER CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-200,
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL, WITH NO
SEVERE IMPACTS EXPECTED. THAT SAID, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SATURDAY AS THE LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO SPIN SEVERAL WAVES OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION. BETWEEN 5PM THU TO 5PM FRI, THERE IS
AROUND A 75% CHANCE OF QPF EXCEEDING 0.5" FOR ALL INLAND AREAS
(WILLAMETTE VALLEY, SW WASHINGTON). IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES,
EXPECTING CLOSER TO 1-1.5" OF ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
IS ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, DIPPING
INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY THE COAST
CONTINUES TO SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH THIS DECREASES GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS INLAND UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE INLAND
UNTIL AROUND 6PM IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES ASHORE, BUT THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF. WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.
LATE SATURDAY, A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA, WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY
BY A FEW DEGREES. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG, AS MONDAY
SEES THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BEGINNING TO CREATE COOLER
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS AGAIN. /JLIU
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS
TO BE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE AREA. WPC
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS NEAR UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT IN TROUGHING
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEK, WITH COOL AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT, WITH RAIN LOOKING FAIRLY LIGHT. EARLY
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000-3500 FT, AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. /JLIU
AVIATION
A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT TO MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z
FRIDAY BEFORE GUSTS SETTLE MORE INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SPIN SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF
STEADIER RAIN INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE, EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN ~09-15Z FRIDAY.
PDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT THROUGH 00-03Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GUSTS SETTLE MORE INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SPIN SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF STEADIER
RAIN INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE,
EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT WHEN THERE IS A 60-70%
CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN ~09-15Z FRIDAY.
MARINE
A FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ASHORE, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WIND GUSTS SETTLING INTO GALE FORCE CRITERIA OF 35 TO 40 KT
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND UPSTREAM, SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 20 FT THIS EVENING
BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND HAZARDOUS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE LOW TEENS BY DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS AND
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SEAS DECREASING FURTHER. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING AN ~70%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SOME TIME
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. GALE FORCE WIND REMAINS OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
BEACH HAZARDS
BEACHGOERS AND THOSE PARTICIPATING IN THE
UPCOMING RAZOR CLAM DIGS SHOULD BE AWARE OF A MODERATE RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES MOST OF THIS WEEK. BE SURE TO NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
TO THE OCEAN AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON INCOMING WAVES, AS SNEAKER
WAVES CAN CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE, SOMETIMES RESULTING IN
INJURY OR DEATH. AVOID JETTIES, LARGE LOGS, AND LARGE ROCKS.
ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 25 FT, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE
SURF ENERGY WILL BE DIRECTED ALONG-SHORE GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIMIT SURF IMPACTS TO AREA BEACHES.
FORECAST SURF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE
OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-271.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ272-273.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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