663
FXUS66 KPQR 281000
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
COOL, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN AND LIGHT CASCADE SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE
PAST 72 HOURS, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRUDGE FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL, DAYTIME
HIGHS AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD,
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY, BUT
PERSISTENT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE SATURDAY EVENING
HOURS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA:
-WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS: LOW TO UPPER 50S
-COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER: LOW TO MID 50S
-COAST AND COAST RANGE: UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
-CASCADES: MID 30S TO UPPER 40S
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A 10-20%
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
AROUND 150-250 J/KG WITH CIN VALUES NEAR 10 J/KG. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RATHER WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, IF ANY HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.
THAT SAID, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SEVERAL WAVES OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. HERE ARE TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION
(QPF) AMOUNTS STARTING THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
ALSO, WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FT, EXPECT AREAS NEAR PASS
LEVEL TO SEE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES, WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT.
-WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS: 0.20-0.40 INCHES
-COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER: 0.10-0.30 INCHES
-COAST AND COAST RANGE: 0.40-1.25 INCHES
HIGHER ELEVATIONS: UP TO 1.75 INCHES
-CASCADES: 0.60-1.50 INCHES
HIGHER ELEVATIONS: UP TO 2.50 INCHES
SNOW: 1-3 INCHES AROUND PASS LEVEL
6-8 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FT
BY SATURDAY EVENING A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG, AS BY SUNDAY
EVENING/EARLY MONDAY HAS THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
BEGINNING TO CREATE COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS YET AGAIN. /42
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY, A BROAD
TROUGHING PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURE AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WPC
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS NEAR UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT IN
TROUGHING PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEK.
OVERALL, NO PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. EARLY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000-3500
FT, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK. /42/JLUI
AVIATION
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30-35 KTS ALONG THE COAST AND 20-25 KTS INLAND. SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, HEAVIER AT TIMES. HEAVY SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 30+ KT, BUT THOSE ARE NOT THE
PREDOMINATE WINDS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, HEAVIER
AT TIMES. HEAVY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED OUTFLOW WINDS
AROUND 30+ KT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH COULD
SEE LIFTING TO VFR OCCASIONALLY FROM 20Z FRIDAY THROUGH 03Z
SATURDAY. INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16-18Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR CHANCES BOUNCING BETWEEN
50-80%. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE TEMPORARY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
PDX AND APPROACHES...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE
TERMINAL WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 00Z
SATURDAY. WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL REMAIN AROUND 45 KT THROUGH
AROUND 18Z FRI. EVEN WITH THIS DIFFERENCE, WINDS ARE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL, AND LLWS WILL BE MORESO RELATED TO THE RUNWAY
ORIENTATION AT KPDX THAN TRUE LLWS. CEILINGS WILL BOUNCE AROUND
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS LOWERING CEILINGS
AT TIMES. -HEC
MARINE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS CONTINUES MOVING NORTH OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING HAVE LOWERED BELOW GALES, BUT A FINAL WAVE ALONG THE LOW
WILL BRING A RESURGENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM
FRIDAY. SEAS ARE DECREASING AS THE SWELL DECREASES, THOUGH WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND HAZARDOUS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE LOW TEENS BY DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM
FRIDAY THROUGH 4 AM SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS AND RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FURTHER. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
BRING A 60-70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS SOME TIME LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. GALE FORCE WIND
REMAINS OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING.
BEACH HAZARDS
BEACHGOERS AND THOSE PARTICIPATING IN THE
UPCOMING RAZOR CLAM DIGS SHOULD BE AWARE OF A MODERATE RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES MOST OF THIS WEEK. BE SURE TO NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
TO THE OCEAN AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON INCOMING WAVES, AS SNEAKER
WAVES CAN CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE, SOMETIMES RESULTING IN
INJURY OR DEATH. AVOID JETTIES, LARGE LOGS, AND LARGE ROCKS.
ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 15
TO 20 FT. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SURF ENERGY WILL BE DIRECTED ALONG-
SHORE GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIMIT
SURF IMPACTS TO AREA BEACHES. FORECAST SURF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY
BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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