585
FXUS66 KPQR 282043
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
142 PM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
COOL, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN AND LIGHT CASCADE SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CONTINUED TROUGHING
IMPACTING THE AREA, WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION WAS SOMEWHAT ROBUST THROUGHOUT LAST NIGHT OVER AREAS OF
GEOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT (COAST RANGE, WILLAPA HILLS, CASCADES), WITH
SEVERAL STATIONS REPORTING TOTAL ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES OVER
THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING TO
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERY RAINFALL, WITH WEAKER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY AROUND A 5-10% CHANCE OF 24 HR RAINFALL
BETWEEN 5PM FRI TO 5PM SAT EXCEEDING 0.25" IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SW WASHINGTON LOWLANDS, CLOSER TO 50-80% IN THE COAST RANGE AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS CURRENTLY ARE FAIRLY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KTS. WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH
WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS BY THE END OF FRIDAY
NIGHT.
CAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 150-250 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS AROUND 10-20% THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH SEVERE IMPACTS SUCH AS HAIL OR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A POOR CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. THAT SAID, WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA,
BRINGING BRIEF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SUNDAY HAVE A 40-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES ON SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY/PORTLAND METRO AREA.
AT THE COAST, A HIGH AROUND THE MID-50S IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. RIDGING
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS PUSHING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. /JLIU
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BROAD TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER AGAIN. WPC 500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT IN TROUGHING PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEK. OVERALL, NO PARTICULARLY
IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EARLY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000-3500 FT, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY EVALUATING
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT, PARTICULARLY IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE. /42/JLIU
AVIATION
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY, WITH MOST TERMINALS BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY VFR AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES. MAIN EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
PDX AND APPROACHES...RAIN SHOWERS WITH CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING AFTER 02Z SAT. /DH
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY
EASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERE IS ABOUT
A 40-50% CHANCE OF LOW-END GALES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE
UNCERTAINTY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS.
SEAS AROUND 13 TO 16 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 12 SECONDS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND
10 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FT ON SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. /DH
BEACH HAZARDS
BEACHGOERS AND THOSE PARTICIPATING IN THE
UPCOMING RAZOR CLAM DIGS SHOULD BE AWARE OF A MODERATE RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES MOST OF THIS WEEK. BE SURE TO NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
TO THE OCEAN AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON INCOMING WAVES, AS SNEAKER
WAVES CAN CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE, SOMETIMES RESULTING IN
INJURY OR DEATH. AVOID JETTIES, LARGE LOGS, AND LARGE ROCKS.
ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 15
TO 20 FT. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SURF ENERGY WILL BE DIRECTED ALONG-
SHORE GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIMIT
SURF IMPACTS TO AREA BEACHES. FORECAST SURF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY
BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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