983
FXUS66 KPQR 260953
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 AM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGH
CASCADES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AND SUNNIER SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE EUGENE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS MILDER TEMPS AND CLOUDIER
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER AND SUNNIER
WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. BROKEN CLOUD
COVER REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A RESULT, WITH A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF LANE AND LINN COUNTIES
PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. WILL SEE THIS LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL
CA, WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGH
CASCADES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS
KEEP THIS PROBABILITY BELOW 15%. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE EUGENE AREA WHILE MORE BREAKS
OF SUN WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 IN THE PORTLAND
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN, YIELDING SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND THE 50S
ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW
SPRINKLES TO COASTAL AREA IN THE MORNING, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
KEEPS ANY QPF BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. ONSHORE FLOW THEN
MAINTAINS CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT MODEL QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN MEAGER
(GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH) AWAY FROM NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS, WHERE LOCATIONS SUCH AS ASTORIA WILL HAVE AROUND
A 20% CHANCE TO SEE AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
20-30 MPH EACH DAY. /CB
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WPC ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 70S IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON THURSDAY, WITH THE NBM
INDICATING A 40-50% CHANCE TO REACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO A 70-80% CHANCE IN THE
PORTLAND METRO. MEANWHILE, MARINE LAYER INFLUENCES APPEAR
LIKELY TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS MORE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN HINTS
AT A RETURN OF COOLER AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEATHER TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTTOM
LINE, DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. /CB
AVIATION
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR INLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 12-18Z SATURDAY (50-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS). WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD - WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 8-10 KT BETWEEN 22Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION.
AS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS, EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KONP LIKELY SEEING IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 18-20Z SATURDAY (30-40% CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS). THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS UNTIL 18Z
SATURDAY AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KT BY 17Z SATURDAY AND PERSISTING
UNTIL AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.
PDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A 50-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12-18Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS UNDER 8 KT TO REMAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY, THEN INCREASE TO 8-10 KT BETWEEN 22Z SATURDAY AND
06Z SUNDAY.
~HALL
MARINE
A BROAD LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS RESULTED
IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS AND UP TO 25 KT FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. WITH THESE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A BUILDING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL, EXPECT
COMBINES SEAS TO REACH 10 TO 11 FEET THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BY EARLY SUNDAY, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INLAND. THE START OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET, WITH SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS UNDER 20 KT. ~HALL
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
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