426
FXUS66 KPQR 281020
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 AM PDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
BENIGN, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK
SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY SURPASSING 80 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY. COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE WEST OF THE CASCADE
CREST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TODAY
AS THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY FLATTENED OUT BY A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY NOTED CROSSING 140W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
INLAND AND THE 50S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER MINIMAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED TO NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE NBM DEPICTS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FROM ROUGHLY TILLAMOOK UP THROUGH THE LONG
BEACH PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
TENTH OR TWO IN THE COWLITZ VALLEY IN WASHINGTON TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE
CASCADES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THROUGH
THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SENDS TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 70S IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH THE NBM STILL INDICATING AN 80-90% PROBABILITY TO
REACH 80 DEGREES IN THE PORTLAND METRO AND A 40-60% CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL NOTABLY REMAIN COOLER AS MARINE LAYER INFLUENCES
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE 60S. THE PERIOD
OF WARM WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS WPC ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST BY FRIDAY AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. /CB
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
(30-40% CHANCE) UNTIL 18-19Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE - MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALL COASTAL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS UNTIL AT LEAST
19-20Z MONDAY (60-70% CHANCE OF MVFR). AFTER 20Z MONDAY, KAST WILL
LIKELY STAY MVFR (60-70% CHANCE), AND KONP WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO
VFR (80-90% CHANCE). AROUND 03-06Z TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR IFR
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40% FOR KAST, WITH KONP HAVING
JUST A 10% CHANCE TO SEE IFR CIGS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE
LIGHT, BUT WITH DIFFERING DIRECTIONS AT KAST, KTMK, AND KONP.
SPECIFICALLY, WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KAST, WESTERLY
WINDS AT KTMK, AND WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KONP.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS UNTIL 19Z MONDAY (20-30% CHANCE
OF MVFR). LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
~HALL
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO SHIFT
INLAND, SUPPORTING BENIGN CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SEAS
AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET AND MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 10
KT WITH GUSTS 15 KT OR LESS.
A SHORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR STEEP EBB CHOP AND WILL COME TO END BY 8 AM MONDAY.
EBB CURRENT OF 7.35 KT AND SEAS 7 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED. ANOTHER
STEEP EBB CHOP WITH A CURRENT OF 7.36 KT AND SEAS AROUND 9 FEET
IS EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY. -HALL/BATZ
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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