879
FXUS66 KPQR 142148 CCA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 PM PDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT, STEADY RAIN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALONG WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON. LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH MOST AREAS LIKELY DRIER.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE CASCADES THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S, WITH A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. DRY WEATHER WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE A WEAK FRONT BRINGS
MORE STEADY, ALBEIT LIGHT, RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-MAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID-60S INLAND, AND
MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
LATER FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL NOSE
ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG
WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY,
REINVIGORATING SHOWERS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY.
WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A BIT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL, BUT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
SET UP. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AROUND A 25-45% CHANCE FOR
EXCEEDING 0.25 INCH ACROSS MANY LOWLAND AREAS, WHILE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES, ARE
SHOWING AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING NOSES BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BUT, THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH ABOUT
A 50/50 CHANCE OF MORE ZONAL FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RIDES
MORE FLATTISH RIDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SO, WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT, UNCERTAINTY LOOMS ON INTO THE
LONG RANGE. /DH
AVIATION
LOW VFR OVERCAST DECK REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND
5000-6000 FT AGL, WITH CONTINUED CLEARING TO A SCATTERED VFR DECK
OVER THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS CONTINUE
TO SEE PASSING MARINE STRATUS, WITH 20-40% CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL
MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING,
AND COASTAL TERMINALS SEE AROUND A 50-60% CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AROUND 11Z THU.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH A
LOW VFR DECK CLEARING TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS EASE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. /JLIU
MARINE
SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 7 FEET AT 9 SECONDS, AND WILL
CONTINUE FALLING GOING INTO THURSDAY DOWN TO 5-7 FT. WINDS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS BY THURSDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK.
A REINVIGORATED NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WILL TURN AGAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE, WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF GALE-FORCE
GUSTS BEYOND 30 NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -PICARD/JLIU
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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