730
FXUS66 KPQR 151654
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
954 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT, STEADY RAIN EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON. LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH MOST AREAS LIKELY DRIER.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND AND MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THURSDAY 11AM TO FRIDAY 11AM ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH PROBABILITIES INLAND OF 10-30% AND A BIT
BETTER AT 40-70% ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN, HIGHER
TOTALS ARE FAVORED NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE.
HIGHS AGAIN PEAK BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MID 60S INLAND
AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OF THE WEEK DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST, DIGGING INTO THE PACNW COAST. RAIN WILL
STILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR A TENTH AND
POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE DECENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. 24
HOUR PROBS FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM 5PM FRIDAY THROUGH 5PM
SATURDAY ARE 50-70% WEST OF THE CASCADES AND GENERALLY GREATER THAN
70% ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBABILITIES FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME ARE 20-40% WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 40-
70% FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRIER AS WEAK RIDGING EDGES INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD
BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD INCREASE BACK
CLOSE TO NORMAL, INTO THE UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT
DECREASES FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SHOWING A
WARM UP TOWARDS NORMAL WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE CLOUDY, COOL PATTERN
PERSISTING. -BATZ
AVIATION
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A LOW OVERCAST
DECK AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL. THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT MVFR AS MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ENTER THE AREA. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY BROADLY WESTERLY WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS MOVING
INTO THE AREA AROUND 21-23Z THU, BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH 60-80% CONFIDENCE,
WHILE INLAND TERMINALS SEE A 30-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
BEGINNING CLOSER TO 5-8Z FRI. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS WHILE THE
FRONT IS IMPACTING THE AREA, BUT WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY OVER
THE COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY DAYTIME
HOURS, WITH A LOW OVERCAST AROUND 5000 FT AGL GRADUALLY BREAKING
UP TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS. AROUND 6Z FRI, THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING IN, BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND A 30-50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE COURSE
OF THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS THROUGHOUT. /JLIU
MARINE
SEAS OF 5-7 FT AT 9-10 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ON FRIDAY AS A REINVIGORATED
NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER BACK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE, WITH A 25-45% CHANCE OF GALE-FORCE GUSTS
BEYOND 30 NM ON SATURDAY, DECREASING TO 5-20% ON SUNDAY. -PICARD
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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