804
FXUS66 KPQR 172115
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
215 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER TOWARDS
THE UPPER 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON, MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE CASCADES WHERE SHOWERS
ARE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. RAIN
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PERFORMED IN SOME AREAS, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CLARK COUNTY, WA TO AROUND
THE SALEM AREA AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS RECEIVING AROUND 0.5-1
INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 8 AM. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
THE VANCOUVER ISLAND AREA. THERE'S A SLIGHT (10-20%) CHANCE OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
WELL. ANY IMPACTS OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO HEAVY RAIN, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
CONDITIONS TREND DRIER ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW IN EASTERN WASHINGTON. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON,
SUPPORTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN 5- 8 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM TO CROSS THROUGH THE PACNW ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. TOTALS OF 0.10-0.25 INCHES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INLAND LOWLANDS WITH TOTALS OF 0.3-0.5 INCH
ACROSS THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. ZONAL FLOW WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA MAY MAINTAIN LIGHT SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY AND KEEPING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INLAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT DEGRADES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
WPC 500MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING SOLUTIONS SPLIT PRETTY EQUALLY
BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING. NBM GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (GENERALLY 15% OR LESS) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
CLOSER TO AVERAGE (AROUND 69-70 DEGREES) TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. -HEC/BATZ
AVIATION
A WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES, RESULTING IN
DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AS OF 20Z SATURDAY,
MOST OF THE AIRSPACE IS VFR WITH CIGS AROUND FL035 TO FL050. LOOKS
LIKE A FEW TERMINALS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR UNTIL 21-22Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 20Z SATURDAY TO 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT WESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KT.
THERE REMAINS A 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY UNTIL 00-03Z SUNDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND TEMPORARILY
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD
SEE A BRIEF RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY
(15-25% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS). EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT UNTIL 06Z SUNDAY, THEN WESTERLY
AROUND 5-10 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
~HALL
MARINE
FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AS A RESULT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WITH
RESULTING FRONTAL PASSAGE CONDITIONS, EXPECT LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST TO AROUND
25 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FT, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A
WESTERLY SWELL OF 6 TO 7 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS.
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, BRINGING LIGHTER WEST WINDS AS THE
WESTERLY SWELL PERSISTS AT 5-6 FT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SHIFTING THEM
SOUTHERLY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY WARRANT ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEADLINES AS MODELS DEPICT A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS TO
30 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 KT. SEAS LOOK TO
INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY SWELL BUILDS
TO AROUND 10 FT ON TUESDAY. ~HALL/CB
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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