934
FXUS66 KPQR 181541 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
841 AM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
TRENDING DRIER IN THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, DEEPENING INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN WA/OR AND NORTHERN ID BY LATE TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT CONDITIONS TREND DRIER FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
COAST.
DRY CONDITIONS WON'T LAST LONG AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BRINGS
IMPACTS TO THE PACNW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ~996 MB SURFACE LOW NORTH OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND WHICH WILL CONTINUE EAST, SENDING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE WA/OR COASTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING THE
EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.10-0.20 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
WITH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. ZONAL FLOW WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY MAINTAIN LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT DEGRADES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
WPC 500MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING SOLUTIONS SPLIT PRETTY EQUALLY
BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING. NBM GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (GENERALLY 15% OR LESS) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
CLOSER TO AVERAGE (AROUND 69-70 DEGREES) TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. -BATZ/HEC
AVIATION
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW COASTAL TERMINALS ARE
REPORTING INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWERS. THESE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING, BRINGING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST.
A FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST AROUND 11-12Z MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN
AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO COASTAL TERMINALS. RAIN AND POTENTIAL VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND 14-15Z MONDAY FOR INLAND TERMINALS.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG
THE COAST AND UP TO 20 KT INLAND.
PDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
CIGS ABOVE FL040. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KT. A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, BRINGING RAIN AND
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z MONDAY.
~HALL
MARINE
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES
PERSISTING ACROSS THE WATERS AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY, HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND ALLOW THE FIRST ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES TO COME TO AN END AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
MAINTAINING SEAS AROUND 6 FT AT 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY AS THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT, BRINGING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WINDS GUST TO 25-30 KT AND
BUILDING SHORT PERIOD WAVES CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE CHAOTIC SEA
STATE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AS WINDS DECREASE AND VEER WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A BUILDING SWELL WILL QUICKLY
PUSH SEAS CLOSER TO 10 FT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. /CB
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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